Tag Archives: collapse

CBO Rings Another Bell on the Debt

08 Wednesday Aug 2018

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No one listens. There’s nothing new or unexpected in the report but it is nonetheless alarming.

The report shows:

  • Debt Is Rising Unsustainably. CBO projects debt held by the public will roughly double as a share of the economy under current law, from 78 percent of GDP at the end of 2018 to 152 percent of GDP in 2048 – an unprecedented level.
  • Spending Is Growing Faster Than Revenue. CBO projects spending will grow rapidly, from less than 21 percent of GDP in 2018 to over 29 percent by 2048. Revenue will grow slowly, from less than 17 percent of GDP in 2018 to nearly 20 percent of GDP. As a result, annual deficits grow from 3.9 percent of GDP in 2018 to 9.5 percent by 2048, approaching the post-World War II record set in 2009.
  • Recent Legislation Will Substantially Worsen the Long-Term Outlook if Extended. Because the unpaid-for 2017 tax law and 2018 spending deal were largely temporary, they have little effect on CBO’s long-term debt estimates under current law. We estimate debt would be about 50 percent of GDP higher in 2048 – roughly 200 percent of GDP – if temporary provisions were extended.
  • High And Rising Debt Will Have Adverse and Potentially Dangerous Consequences. The fiscal situation will lead to slower economic growth, lower income, higher interest rates, ballooning interest payments, reduced fiscal space, weakened international leadership, and an increased likelihood of a fiscal crisis.
  • Major Trust Funds Are Headed Toward Insolvency. CBO projects the Highway, PBGC Multi-Employer, Social Security Disability Insurance, Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds will all be exhausted by 2032 without action to stabilize their finances.
  • Fixing the Debt Will Get Harder the Longer Policymakers Wait. Delaying necessary deficit reduction will mean larger spending cuts and tax increases concentrated on fewer people. CBO estimates the size of the needed adjustment would grow by half if policymakers waited just ten years to take action.

Lawmakers need to work together to address this bleak fiscal picture now so problems do not compound any further.

Why does anyone even bother with the “lawmakers must act!” bit anymore? They’re not going to do anything other than say they’ll act – as they’ve said for decades now. Big hat, no cattle? Big debt, no Congress.

There are some scary facts hidden in there, along with some boring charts. We’ve covered the “held by the public” obfuscation before. But there is a silver bullet for all of this: total debt absolution. Look for it around the time of the Second Coming.

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Boring chart. CBO.

Things Run Together

23 Wednesday May 2018

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Yesterday I rang a bell about Marvin Goodfriend (who, it turns out, is not a good friend) and his scheme to rob and enslave you. He’s pushing a cashless society, among other things.

I then recalled a link from the old FP News site about rebellion against the same in Sweden. The Swedes.

It’s interesting that I just today ran a piece at FP about Sweden’s sudden call to vigilance about possible war and civil unrest.

They released a brochure. 

Other countries in Europe are quietly doing the same thing even as Americans gain more weight and more tattoos.

These things are all interrelated, thanks to the never-ending gifts of globalism. Ready or not, war and financial crisis are coming to the West. Stefan Molyneux and Peter Schiff discussed part of that and more yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V19Ar3LqYc

Stefan M.

Watch that, all of it. They discuss the coming crash, the debt, the stupidity, the end of retirement, immigration (both ways), and the near-certainty of full-fledged socialism in America. If you’re on your game, then you can answer the riddle as to why those evil men like GoodFIEND want negative interest rates, even in a time when central banksters are saying things are great and rates should rise a bit. If not, then I suggest maybe another highly respected web log might be more to your liking. Maybe not to read but just one with a bunch of cat pictures. Cats with tattoos. Obese cats with tattoos…

Today Stefan talked to Joseph M. Humire about that socialist disaster in Venezuela (watch that). If you’ve been following along at FP the past year or so, then you know that’s a pet subject and a microcosm of what American’s can look forward to. Turns out there is more to that tragedy than even I knew.

I was going to make a video about all this but what you see here is probably as close to a synthesis as I’ll come for now.

Solutions? Well, you had that lovely election the other day so everything should be fine, right? You took my advice and wisely elected Ron Paul President in 2008, remember? Or not. Schiff is probably right. Barring some great 27-D chess move by the Trump, the suffering masses will be penalized with even more of the same insanity that created these deep problems in the first place.

I have other real solutions (two really) which I will hold tight for the time being. Three predictions as well.

PS: another great column at TPC is coming along any hour now. That, then, here.

The Military-Industrial Complex Notices the Collapse, Wants More

20 Thursday Jul 2017

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Of course, the solution is to spend more and grow the MIC even more. Please read:

In the first of a series, we report on stunning new evidence that the U.S. Department of Defense is waking up to the collapse of American primacy, and the rapid unraveling of the international order created by U.S. power after the Second World War.

But the Pentagon’s emerging vision of what comes next hardly inspires confidence. We breakdown both the insights and cognitive flaws in this vision. In future pieces we will ask the questions: What is really driving the end of the American empire? And based on that more accurate diagnosis of the problem, what is the real solution?

An extraordinary new Pentagon study has concluded that the U.S.-backed international order established after World War 2 is “fraying” and may even be “collapsing”, leading the United States to lose its position of “primacy” in world affairs.

The solution proposed to protect U.S. power in this new “post-primacy” environment is, however, more of the same: more surveillance, more propaganda (“strategic manipulation of perceptions”) and more military expansionism.

[MORE OF THE SAME]

The document concludes that the world has entered a fundamentally new phase of transformation in which U.S. power is in decline, international order is unravelling, and the authority of governments everywhere is crumbling.

Having lost its past status of “pre-eminence”, the U.S. now inhabits a dangerous, unpredictable “post-primacy” world, whose defining feature is “resistance to authority”.

Danger comes not just from great power rivals like Russia and China, both portrayed as rapidly growing threats to American interests, but also from the increasing risk of “Arab Spring”-style events. These will erupt not just in the Middle East, but all over the world, potentially undermining trust in incumbent governments for the foreseeable future.

The report, based on a year-long intensive research process involving consultation with key agencies across the Department of Defense and U.S. Army, calls for the U.S. government to invest in more surveillance, better propaganda through “strategic manipulation” of public opinion, and a “wider and more flexible” U.S. military.

The report was published in June by the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute to evaluate the DoD’s approach to risk assessment at all levels of Pentagon policy planning. The study was supported and sponsored by the U.S. Army’s Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate; the Joint Staff, J5 (Strategy and Policy Branch); the Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Develop­ment; and the Army Study Program Management Office.

One wonders if Gibbon is read at the War College.

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Just not enough being spent… Portside.

Jim Rogers Predicts Massive Depression Later This Year

10 Saturday Jun 2017

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Tech stocks took a little beating yesterday, sending the NASDAQ down slightly, even as the DOW was up. Such fluctuations usually cause a murmur. However the day-to-day roller coaster is really a poor indicator of overall health in the markets. A deeper look reveals a very ugly truth. Our entire economy is built on nothing but a series of failing bubbles. It’s only a matter of time before a chain-reaction ushers in a correction and chaos.

Jim Rogers, who called the Great Recession five years in advance and who took timely evasive actions in 2006, says the end of this year, 2017, or early 2018, will herald the next downturn. And he says it will be the worst in our lifetimes.

Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?

Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.

Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.

Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.

We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one.

This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now — that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.

In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008.

It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.

Blodget: I am worried.

Rogers: Good. Good.

Blodget: Can anybody rescue us?

Rogers: They will try. What’s going to happen is they’re going to raise interest rates some more. Then when things start going really bad, people are going to call and say, “You must save me. It’s Western civilization. It’s going to collapse.” And the Fed, who is made up of bureaucrats and politicians, will say, “Well, we better do something.” And they’ll try, but it won’t work. It’ll cause some rallies, but it won’t work this time.

Blodget: And we are in a situation where Western civilization already seems to be possibly collapsing, even with the market going up all the time. Often when you do have a financial calamity, you get huge turmoil in the political system. What happens politically if that happens?

Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.

You’re going to see governments fail. You’re going to see countries fail, this time around. Iceland failed last time. Other countries fail. You’re going to see more of that.

You’re going to see parties disappear. You’re going to see institutions that have been around for a long time — Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. Gone. Not even a memory for most people. You’re going to see a lot more of that next around, whether it’s museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms.

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YouTube.

Rest assured that, right up until the very end, the base liars at the Federal Reserve and the habitual idiots in D.C. will maintain that: “things are fine, never been better, impossibly healthy.” 

I’m hesitant to put a date stamp on this thing. However, I respect Roger’s expert opinions over my own foresight. But it is coming – we’re overdue and living in a financial fantasy world. When it comes, it will not be pretty. And this will probably be the one when the usual “rescue” gimmicks fail.

As for the starting point: I would suggest Venezuela or South Africa. Then again, as Rogers alludes, the watched pot never boils. Once it starts, there will be few safe havens. Are you also residing in Asia? Me neither.

The good theoretical news is that this crisis will present the opportunity for a total reset, a comprehensive solution to more than a century’s worth of economic problems. The odds of that, in most places that count, however, are rather slim. It’s far more likely that Westerners will endure a decade or two (or three) of painful stagnation followed by more of the same.

There are ways to personally prepare for some of this. You should be looking at them. And now. Looking at the TeeVee doesn’t count.

You’ve been warned. Again.

The Real Life Slo-Mo SHTF Meltdown in Venezuela

01 Thursday Jun 2017

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A year ago I reported just how bad things in Venezuela were getting. Bad, yes, but then just the tip of the iceberg.

Today I wrote a cautionary column for Freedom Prepper about the continuing slide of the South American nation. Please give it a read regardless of whether or not you know about or care about the crisis. Odds are you don’t (know) because of the near black-out by the American media.

Through the horrible lense of Venezuela we are witnessing the complete collapse of an entire society. This was brought about by many factors – chief among them Communism (Socialism). And it can all happen anywhere to any people – even Americans. Please learn and prepare.

I’ve written some shorts and posted some links about the crisis this year. Some few of these have proven extremely popular. If I have time, I would like to write out some fully timeline of the collapse with detailed analysis. (No promise on that).

HERE ARE BUT A FEW OF THE PROBLEMS CITIZENS ARE FACING IN THE STRICKEN NATION:

High unemployment;
No money;
Price and monetary inflation;
Food shortages;
Starvation – the average person has lost nearly 20 pounds already (some have died, more will);
People are eating rats and pets to survive;
The grocery stores are empty and closing;
Martial law;
Daily riots and ultraviolent crime;
Complete desperation;
Schools are closed;
Power is out;
Water is interrupted; and
On and on and on…

Even after I published that, Drudge reported things keep getting worse, more desperate:

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Drudge Report.

What’s happening there is terrible. For us, potentially more terrible, is the specter that this could happen in the U.S. – or anywhere.

The media did rave over Venezuela just a few years ago. The former president made scathing, hilarious, and partially (mostly?) true remarks about G.W. Bush at the U.N. The media covered that. Then the former leader sent tankers of free home heating oil to New England during a cold winter – a gesture for America’s poor. That was in part a publicity stunt. The media picked up on it.

It is strange they are so uninterested now that the nation has descended into utter chaos. Small wonder. As I noted last year, Venezuela is was a statist’s paradise, home to so many thoughtful, progressive, socialist and communist programs and ideals. Now, it seems, the chickens have come home to roost. Now the people eat rats or starve while dodging bullets in the dark.

The same people who told you life in the South American paradise was so great, then, are the same people telling you America and the West need to adopt the same systems now. It’s not that they don’t learn – they do. They just do not care. You should.

The Empire Falters

11 Tuesday Apr 2017

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John Whitehead muses over the new, emerging wars of stupidity in conjunction with all the other wars, programs, policies, debts, and expenditures which are pushing the U.S. closer and closer towards fifth-century Rome.

Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes… known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few.… No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. — James Madison

Waging endless wars abroad (in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and now Syria) isn’t making America—or the rest of the world—any safer, it’s certainly not making America great again, and it’s undeniably digging the U.S. deeper into debt.

In fact, it’s a wonder the economy hasn’t collapsed yet.

Indeed, even if we were to put an end to all of the government’s military meddling and bring all of the troops home today, it would take decades to pay down the price of these wars and get the government’s creditors off our backs. Even then, government spending would have to be slashed dramatically and taxes raised.

…

The government is $19 trillion in debt: War spending has ratcheted up the nation’s debt. The debt has now exceeded a staggering $19 trillion and is growing at an alarming rate of $35 million/hour and $2 billion every 24 hours. Yet while defense contractors are getting richer than their wildest dreams, we’re in hock to foreign nations such as Japan and China (our two largest foreign holders at $1.13 trillion and $1.12 trillion respectively).

The Pentagon’s annual budget consumes almost 100% of individual income tax revenue. If there is any absolute maxim by which the federal government seems to operate, it is that the American taxpayer always gets ripped off, especially when it comes to paying the tab for America’s attempts to police the globe. Having been co-opted by greedy defense contractors, corrupt politicians and incompetent government officials, America’s expanding military empire is bleeding the country dry at a rate of more than $57 million per hour.

…

The U.S. government spends more on wars (and military occupations) abroad every year than all 50 states combined spend on health, education, welfare, and safety. In fact, the U.S. spends more on its military than the eight highest-ranking nations with big defense budgets combined. The reach of America’s military empire includes close to 800 bases in as many as 160 countries, operated at a cost of more than $156 billion annually. As investigative journalist David Vine reports, “Even US military resorts and recreation areas in places like the Bavarian Alps and Seoul, South Korea, are bases of a kind. Worldwide, the military runs more than 170 golf courses.”

…

Add in the cost of waging war in Syria (with or without congressional approval), and the burden on taxpayers soars to more than $11.5 million a day. Ironically, while presidential candidate Trump was vehemently opposed to the U.S. use of force in Syria, as well as harboring Syrian refugees within the U.S., he had no problem retaliating against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on behalf of Syrian children killed in a chemical attack. The cost of launching a 59 Tomahawk missile-strike against Syria? It’s estimated that the missiles alone cost $60 million. Mind you, this is the same man, while campaigning for president, who warned that fighting Syria would signal the start of World War III against a united Syria, Russia and Iran. Already oil prices have started to climb as investors anticipate an extended conflict.

Clearly, war has become a huge money-making venture, and the U.S. government, with its vast military empire, is one of its best buyers and sellers.

Yet what most Americans—brainwashed into believing that patriotism means supporting the war machine—fail to recognize is that these ongoing wars have little to do with keeping the country safe and everything to do with enriching the military industrial complex at taxpayer expense.

These facts and figures are staggering and Whitehead shoots on the low side of the costs involved. But he nails it that, whatever the cost, there benefits are nonexistent. Of course,the usual suspects are cleaning up. The rest of us are fleeced, lie to, and in some cases, maimed or killed.

collapse-of-American-Empire3

Not sure what these numbers refer to, if anything. Symbolism, this. Pagun View.

It’s always the internal affairs that bring down great nations and empires. We are no different. The problem is repeated throughout history: government’s run wild; the people are willfully blind. I can’t and won’t give any date as accurate as, say, 476 for the default – even that is speculative. But it’s coming, happening now, been happening…

“America first” would have gone a long way to “make America great again”. Make it just American again. Sadly, these slogans were empty as any and didn’t even remotely materialize.

The good news is that, eventually, life will go on. The average man in the Italian Alps circa 550 lived essentially the same life as his counterpart from 450. The getting there, getting through the end game, will require a little stamina and preparation. If you didn’t pay much attention to the recent past, at least give a little thought to the near future.

 

Thoughts On Charlotte

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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I like Charlotte. As far as big cities go it’s one of the best. Great cigar shops. Rocking chairs in the big commercial airport. I went to my first NRA convention there.

Yet, for two nights in a row now, the Queen City has become the epicenter of the collapse of old America. Some random thoughts:

  • I wasn’t there but shooting Keith Scott just because he had a gun is BS. Again, I wasn’t there. Neither were you.
  • Where did the book come from? Was it Nine Millimeter by Hi Point?
  • The cops confronted Scott while trying to serve a warrant on someone else. That is how the justice system operates or used to. Is this something people in Charlotte want discontinued?
  • Scott, a black man, was shot by an officer, also a black man. Why am I, as a result, a “f*cking devil“? That’s not going to win any sympathy. I know you’re upset, bub, but take your racism and go to hell. Seriously.
  • There’s a collection of black preachers in Charlotte called “THUG”.
  • THUG immediately called for a boycott of white business – because a black man shot a black man. Priorities.
  • Boycott really means loot and burn.
  • This sh*t is starting to get really old.
  • This is and is not a racial problem. I see a lot of white faces among the rioters.
  • All this must please ISIS to no end. Don’t forget about them. They like a diversion.
  • Where is Hussein Obama?
  • Tearing up hotels, apartments, interstate, police cars, buses, shops, and WalMart stores is one thing. If you really want a race war, loot the NASCAR hall of fame.
  • I would avoid Charlotte until the National Guard is retracted.
  • I would avoid any major city center right now.
  • Unless Scott used his “book” in a threatening manner, unprovoked, he should not have been shot. People who need to be shot include:
  • People blocking interstates;
  • People burning trucks;
  • People looting Walmart;
  • People looting halls of fame;
  • People attacking reporters;
  • People attacking houses;
  • People committing arson;
  • People who shoot others without provocation.
  • Shoot just a few of them and the rest will go home.

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Who needs zombie movies? News Observer.

If this is the new normal in America, then we really don’t need ISIS. Arm up and avoid the cities. This is starting to make me ill.

 

Alternate Predictions: Hillary’s First 100 Days and Beyond

21 Sunday Aug 2016

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I still have this feeling that Donald John Trump will become America’s 45th President. It’s just a feeling, I must admit. I base it on two ideas. Trump likes winning and, by the numbers, he still has a narrow opportunity. Rumor grows, and is well-reasoned, that Trump is really a Clinton plant trying to throw the election to his old friend. That seems quite likely too. If that’s true, then a large percentage of the people are being cruelly played. That is nothing new in politics (the norm really).

The people form the basis of the other half of my Trump victory rationale. One would think that after so many recent decades of crime and deceit from Washington, the voters would welcome any outsider with open arms. Trump may be a narcissistic megalomania, a connected corporatist insider, a New York City liberal, and a long-time friend of the Clintons, but at least he is not a Clinton himself. There is, not as of now, any suspicion of Donald having murdered anyone, let alone half a cemetery. This would be the lesser of two evils factor.

Then again, it is never safe to overestimate the American public with its goldfish-like memory and gullibility of a three-year-old. They have made clear they are not interested in any third-party disruption of the Democrat-Republican alliance for the greater good of the bankers of the world. Thus, I need waste no energy on Gary Johnson or any one else. It is also useless to speculate of the resistance Hillary may face from a nominally Republican Congress. Any such will be slight and fleeting.

This is a story about Clinton who does, my feelings aside, stand a very good chance of becoming your next president. I say “your” not “our” because I will have nothing to do with it, either way. Having separated from politics and much of popular culture, I am now planning a full divorce. I’ll still be around, offering a real alternative, but this is your pointless fight.

Speaking of pointless, Hillary has already begun to assemble her transition team and is laying out her first term goals. It largely consists of three phases: 1) more government; 2) more government, and; 3) …more government. If you’re “with her”, then you must agree that the past 240 years of constant expansion just hasn’t been enough.

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HillaryClinton.com.

While the tone of the agenda is tax and spend, there must be a healthy yet undisclosed dose of debt expansion. Assuming she has two terms, I conservatively estimate she will leave you with between $40 and $55 Trillion in on-books debt, circa 2024. If all goes well by her plans, the total unfunded liabilities will lurch towards $300 Trillion.

If all does not go well (and when does it?), then the Treasury and/or the Fed (and you by proxy) may have to assume some of the fictitious losses from the bursting of the derivatives bubble. In that case, multiply those already rosy numbers above by a factor of two to five.

Under a worst case scenario Hillary might spend much of her second term attempting to reorder the currency itself – a revaluation of high magnitude designed to offset the effects of inflation, hyper or otherwise. To borrow some of Jesse Jackson’s lingo, this revaluation will be devaluation, leading to evisceration. Also, look for the confiscation of your passports – you vote for this and you’ll have to stay and live with it.

Some of her agenda deals with:

Infrastructure rebuilding

America’s roads and bridges do need an overhaul. This would be best accomplished through privatization and user fees. Instead, look for new wasteful government programs complete with generous graft. These are to be paid for with new taxes on “the rich”. They will involve taxing a dollar to spend a quarter; the bargain will, as always, be passed on to you. Congratulations, you’re rich.

Immigration Reform

All illegal immigrants will be sanctioned and their extended families and friends welcomed to come in as well. More emphasis will be placed on expediting an increased flow of terror-prone muslims from the Middle East and elsewhere.

Promises will be made that this is an end measure, not to be repeated again. Those will be lies which the people will accept even if they know better. The goal is to have America majority non-white, non-European BEFORE 2050. The plan will work well, the results less so.

Gun Control

One of Hillary’s official unofficial aims is to diminish the Second Amendment. An outright repeal will be virtually impossible though completely unnecessary. A parade of “common sense” reforms should do the trick.

One of the first measure to come shall be the universal abolition of immunity for firearms manufacturers. When Mohammed bin Mohammed el Mohammed, freshly immigrated as a “refugee”, shoots and kills 50 people in the name of Allah, look for a class-action lawsuit against Sig Sauer. Bankrupting gun makers is as good as eliminating the Second Amendment.

This and more will be facilitated by Hillary’s Supreme Court. I imagine her whole aim in the appointment process will be to ram through one or more anti-gun candidates. Look for the same in the lower federal courts.

Beset with similar problems as the U.S., Germany stands to see an increase in gun ownership. As their defensive capability rises, so Hillary will have yours fall.

Universal College

This one will be especially popular. As the economy declines further and fewer people have the ability to find work, more will desire to waste four to ten years in various do-nothing college programs. And as universal healthcare worked out so well, so it may be with higher “education” (no actual education, no learning, is expected).

This may be approached in a variety of ways but will necessarily involve more public debt. More of the burden of existing private education debt may (will) be shifted to the taxpayers as well. This will account for $1 – $5 Trillion of the new (recorded) debt.

All Other Existing Entitlements

These will be safe and sound and expanded as time allows. More debt will flow.

War

Hillary has no stated claims of belligerence against any particular foes. At least none that I am aware of. Yet, as the above policies fail miserably there will be a need to divert the public attention. Look for near-perpetual war in the future – most of it in the Middle East. That will: allow the constant flow of terrorists into the U.S.; provide huge profits for the MIC and the banks, and; keep Americans preoccupied.

Do not look for any victories in the traditional sense. If the wars end up involving Russia or China, actual military defeat may be possible. Winning and losing are immaterial; it’s the spending that counts.

Debt and Money

As I’ve explained, the debt will continue to grow apace. The already worthless dollar may come to be itself something worse – an actual nuisance. Hillary will do whatever it takes to protect the cabal and ensure their increased power.

 

Much of this agenda, most maybe, will come to pass if Trump wins. After the election in November I plan to publish a set of predictions of what will follow in the next one to eight years and beyond. That will allow me a string of “see, I told you so” articles.

The America you knew is over. The Republic is a thing of the past and will not be revived any time soon, if ever. Better days will follow but much pain will be experienced to get to them. And they will be different from those of the past. Hopefully they will bring the people a little enlightenment. That may be too much to ask.

Falling Empire, Rising Hope

08 Sunday Nov 2015

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Edward Gibbon listed various causes for the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Amidst his voluminous words one will discern the crippling effects of: military expansionism, currency debasement, massive public spending and debt, cultural contamination, and loss of character amongst the citizenry.

One who has lived long enough and with eyes open and awake will surely notice a similar trend in the United States over the past few decades. In 2015 levels of political or social excess which would have been considered a crisis in 1970 or 1980 don’t even raise eyebrows now.

In America today anything goes. Anything, except common sense, decency and responsibility. A huge percentage of the populace, probably a majority, has turned their lives over to the government and Bacchus. All of the deadly sins are on prominent display day after year after decade.

Leaving aside social decay, sloth, and criminality, the economic collapse is alarming enough. The old American dream of a home, a job, and improving stability is now just that – a dream. The new economy of debt, more debt and endless paper “money” is still wrapped in a semblance of the traditional America. However, the facade is beginning to crack and fall away.

Bill Bonner warns the funny money expansion has reached its end. The Fed and their employed fools in government have nothing left with which to prop up the ruins of the Superpower.

That flood of EZ money created the delta of plenty in which we live today.

Unfortunately, it’s not likely to continue, because funny things happen when you do funny things to money.

Former, honest officials in the know, like Paul Craig Roberts and David Stockman, warn the game is over.

In the last two days we posted the latest data on two crucial markers of global economic direction——-export shipments from Korea and export orders coming into the high performance machinery factories of Germany.

In a word, they were abysmal, and smoking gun evidence that the suzerains of Beijing have not stopped the implosion in China, and that their latest paddy wagon forays—–arresting the head of China’s third largest bank and hand-cuffing several hedge fund managers including the purported “Warren Buffett” of China—-are signs not of stabilization, but sheer desperation.

So it is not surprising that Korea’s October exports—–the first such data from anywhere in the world—were down by a whopping 16% from last year, and have now been down for 10 straight months. Needless to say, China is the number one destination for Korean exports.

Likewise, German export orders plummeted by 18% in September, and this was no one month blip.

The new American fiscal model depends on taxing profits and income to keep the funny money above water. It depends on sheer faith in a system of criminal corruption. There have to be incomes and profits. The system has to be faith worthy, at least at a basic level.

The rubber band of debt can only be stretched so far before it snaps. Families are mired in debt. So are businesses and the state. The phantom obligations of society have passed the point from which they could ever be satisfied.

The paid salesmen at CNBC and the idiot politicians still repeat the lie that everything is fine, improving even. Off camera they admit a tragedy is brewing. Thus, the occasional talk about reform. A reform keeps the underlying system in place, tweaking it slightly in order to artificially extend its days. A reform is temporary. We need something permanent.

Charles Hugh Smith hypothesizes that a collapse is much better than a reform. He provides plenty of evidence. A crisis which destroys the status quo works in our favor because it accelerates the inevitable. It moves us into a new and real rebuilding phase.

The reform quickly becomes “reform” –a simulacrum that maintains the facade of fixing what’s broken while maintaining the Status Quo. Another layer of costly bureaucracy is added, along with hundreds or thousands of pages of additional regulations, all of which add cost and friction without actually solving what was broken.

The added friction increases the system’s operating costs at multiple levels. Practitioners must stop doing actual work to fill out forms that are filed and forgotten; lobbyists milk the system to eradicate any tiny reductions in the flow of swag; attorneys probe the new regulations for weaknesses with lawsuits, and the enforcing agencies add staff to issue fines.

None of this actually fixes what was broken; all these fake-reforms add costs and reduce whatever efficiencies kept the system afloat.

The end of the Western Roman Empire brought turmoil only to a very few; it was largely ignored by the majority. And, it ushered in, or forced, the re-definition of the state, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the modern ages. It’s time again.

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Morning is coming. Google.

The coming fall of post-modern Amerika, if allowed to follow its natural course, will bring a rebirth and happier times. A short time of shortage and confusion will really lead to better lives for good people, both here and across the West. Let the good times roll.

We’re Number One!

14 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by in News and Notes

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I just published a story about the sad ending of one of the greatest men’s clothiers in American history. As sad as the end was it was fitting. Modern American men do not need nice clothes. They don’t want to look like gentlemen. They resent class. They are, by and very large, a mass of fat slobs. Our women don’t look much better.

As you may remember from blog posts past I used to be a fattie. With a little self-control and a lot of gym time I transformed myself from a tubby couch potato into a proportionate athlete. Of late I find it difficult to exercise on a regular schedule. Yet and still, by carefully controlling my diet, I maintain a healthy body mass. I only eat what I need. This simple concept escapes most Americans.

Modern Americans are the fattest people in the history of the planet. More than half the populace is overweight, a third are morbidly obese. Adults, children – read the stats I just linked to. Hell, you don’t have to read it, do you?

The other day as I motored about my daily business I saw a bloated whale of a woman waddling across a busy street. Perhaps 400 ponds, more than twice her natural weight, she lumbered forth, oblivious to the world, yapping on her cell phone. Like a fat zombie. I see this everyday, everywhere. I’m sure you must see it also. Pathetic as it is common.

I’m not making fun of fat people. I used to be one of them. I wish they could be healthy, be normal. Else, I wish they would spare the rest of us their repulsive visage. It’s just too much – literally.

Americans are the fattest. We’re also among the dumbest. We have the largest population in prison. We are among the most violent. This is paradoxical. Historically, heavier people were associated with a prosperous and civil society. Our society is overly dumb and overly in economic decline.

Ours is a society in decline by every measure. We are obsessed by the trivial. The important goes unnoticed and unattended. In most American States the highest paid public servant is a college football coach.

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Map of the madness.

I love college football. It’s just plain fun. However, it is sad that my team’s coach makes 25 times (roughly) as much as the governor of my state. My taxes support this imbalance, with obvious results. Mediocre football, monopoly subsidized, in a pitiful political environment.

Others notice the disparities too. Small business owners know something is wrong. Something is wrong. It’s what I write about so often here.

There is no political solution. No legal solution. The change must come from us. What will you do? Me, I’m going back to the gym. Back to the ring. Please follow me.

America is number one in all the wrong categories. It’s time for a change.