Tag Archives: economy

Of Summer Jobs, Economic Woe, and Academic Pursuits, Etc.

23 Friday Jun 2017

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So much in one AP story about teens and summer and changes: the Disappearing Summer Job.

As summer 2017 begins, America’s teenagers are far less likely to be acquiring the kinds of experiences Doyle found so useful. Once a teenage rite of passage, the summer job is vanishing.

Instead of baling hay, scooping ice cream or stocking supermarket shelves in July and August, today’s teens are more likely to be enrolled in summer school, doing volunteer work to burnish their college credentials or just hanging out with friends.

For many, not working is a choice. For some others, it reflects a lack of opportunities where they live, often in lower-income urban areas: They sometimes find that older workers hold the low-skill jobs that once would have been available to them.

In July 1986, 57 percent of Americans ages 16 to 19 were employed. The proportion stayed over 50 percent until 2002 when it began dropping steadily. By last July, only 36 percent were working.

So much about modern America in one article. I was going to dissect this, almost line by line, but I have not the time – working my summer jobs.

My first summer job, of real employment, was conning people into helping people obtain gym memberships. Some 27 years later, I’m kind of still at it. I’m under contract for a fitness chapter in a new book (should be drafted and in next week) and writing a stand-alone book on the subject for the same publisher (later this summer). This is in no way typical.

pee-wee-bag-boy

Gone like Pee Wee? Sinking liner.

There are:

Fewer jobs;

Massive competition for them;

Illegals and other immigrant inflation;

Pressures for college (for what that’s worth);

And the looming threat of total automation.

Please make of this material what you will. Did you have a summer job? Your kids? Food for thought in a changed nation. Where are we?

When Have We Heard This Before?

22 Thursday Jun 2017

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They never learn.

Today:

All of the 34 largest U.S. banks are fortified enough to withstand a severe U.S. and global recession and continue lending, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

…

“This year’s results show that, even during a severe recession, our large banks would remain well capitalized,” Fed Gov. Jerome Powell said in a statement. “This would allow them to lend throughout the economic cycle, and support households and businesses when times are tough.”

Feb., 2008, even as Lehman teetered and the ripples spread:

Bernanke said he believes major banks and Wall Street firms are likely to take additional earnings hits tied to bad investments in subprime mortgages. That could lead to tighter lending standards and contribute to an overall slowdown.

“More expensive and less available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint on economic growth,” Bernanke said.

But he added he’s not worried about bank failures because he thinks banks entered the current downturn with sufficient capital and have been able to raise additional funds.

The good news is that they have learned a little – they now couch their stupidity in terms of a severe recession. The bad news is … give it a few months…

the fail boat

Today’s News NJ.

More on how Bernanke and Co. were so laughably wrong, HERE.

Really not a laughing matter.

Paul Craig Roberts on the Russia Fantasy, the Politicians, the Media, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and the Utter Failure of American Leadership

14 Wednesday Jun 2017

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Roberts never disappoints. Today he masterfully interweaves the various, total failures of post-American society into a narrative even the denizens of the Cave might be able to follow.

There is no sign that American leadership in any area is actually capable of thought. Consider Wall Street and corporate leadership. To boost share prices Wall Street forced all corporations to desert their home country and move the production of goods and services sold to Americans offshore to where labor and regulatory costs were lower. The lower costs raised profits and share prices. Wall Street threatened resistant corporations with takeovers of the companies if they refused to move abroad in order to increase their profits.

Neither Wall Street nor corporate boards and CEOs were smart enough to understand that moving jobs offshore also moved US consumer incomes and purchasing power offshore. In other words, the financial and business leadership were too stupid to comprehend that without the incomes from high value-added, high productivity US jobs, the American consumer would not have the discretionary income to continue in his role as the economy’s driver.

The Federal Reserve caught on to Wall Street’s mistake. To rectify the mistake, the Fed expanded credit, allowing a buildup in consumer debt to keep the economy going on credit purchases. However, once consumer debt is high relative to income, the ability to buy more stuff departs. In other words, credit expansion is not a permanent fix for the lack of consumer income growth.

A country whose financial and business leadership is too stupid to understand that a population increasingly employed in part-time minimum wage jobs is not a big spending population is a country whose leadership has failed.

It is strictly impossible to boost profits by offshoring jobs without also offshoring US consumer incomes. Therefore, the profits from offshoring are temporary. Once enough jobs have been moved offshore that aggregate demand is stymied, the domestic market stagnates and then declines.

As I have demonstrated so many times for so many years, as has John Williams (shadowstats.com), the jobs reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics are nonsense. The jobs in the alleged recovery from June 2009 are largely low-income domestic service jobs and the product of the theoretical birth/death model. The alleged recovery from the 2007-08 financial crisis is the first recovery in history in which the labor force participation rate declined. Labor force participation rates decline when the economy offers scant job opportunities, not when employment opportunities are rising.

What we know about US jobs is that the jobs are increasingly part-time minimum wage jobs. According to a presstitute news report that might or might not be true, there are only 12 counties in the entirety of the United States in which a person can rent a one-bedroom home on a minimum wage income.

Roberts knows, I know, you know, that these idiots will never learn from their overwhelming mistakes. They have completely abandoned reality, you and yours with it. The answer to any of it, from the fools, is always more of the same.

signs-of-a-collapsing-society

Must we all have a Charlton Heston moment? Is That Baloney.

One wonders how long this charade will go on. The experts seem to think, at a maximum, another 16 to 23 years. Let’s call it 20, with an inside safety margin of 15: you have 15 years left to prepare for something not seen since 476 AD.

You should probably get to work on that today.

Jim Rogers Predicts Massive Depression Later This Year

10 Saturday Jun 2017

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Tech stocks took a little beating yesterday, sending the NASDAQ down slightly, even as the DOW was up. Such fluctuations usually cause a murmur. However the day-to-day roller coaster is really a poor indicator of overall health in the markets. A deeper look reveals a very ugly truth. Our entire economy is built on nothing but a series of failing bubbles. It’s only a matter of time before a chain-reaction ushers in a correction and chaos.

Jim Rogers, who called the Great Recession five years in advance and who took timely evasive actions in 2006, says the end of this year, 2017, or early 2018, will herald the next downturn. And he says it will be the worst in our lifetimes.

Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?

Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.

Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.

Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.

We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one.

This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now — that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.

In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008.

It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.

Blodget: I am worried.

Rogers: Good. Good.

Blodget: Can anybody rescue us?

Rogers: They will try. What’s going to happen is they’re going to raise interest rates some more. Then when things start going really bad, people are going to call and say, “You must save me. It’s Western civilization. It’s going to collapse.” And the Fed, who is made up of bureaucrats and politicians, will say, “Well, we better do something.” And they’ll try, but it won’t work. It’ll cause some rallies, but it won’t work this time.

Blodget: And we are in a situation where Western civilization already seems to be possibly collapsing, even with the market going up all the time. Often when you do have a financial calamity, you get huge turmoil in the political system. What happens politically if that happens?

Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.

You’re going to see governments fail. You’re going to see countries fail, this time around. Iceland failed last time. Other countries fail. You’re going to see more of that.

You’re going to see parties disappear. You’re going to see institutions that have been around for a long time — Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. Gone. Not even a memory for most people. You’re going to see a lot more of that next around, whether it’s museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms.

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YouTube.

Rest assured that, right up until the very end, the base liars at the Federal Reserve and the habitual idiots in D.C. will maintain that: “things are fine, never been better, impossibly healthy.” 

I’m hesitant to put a date stamp on this thing. However, I respect Roger’s expert opinions over my own foresight. But it is coming – we’re overdue and living in a financial fantasy world. When it comes, it will not be pretty. And this will probably be the one when the usual “rescue” gimmicks fail.

As for the starting point: I would suggest Venezuela or South Africa. Then again, as Rogers alludes, the watched pot never boils. Once it starts, there will be few safe havens. Are you also residing in Asia? Me neither.

The good theoretical news is that this crisis will present the opportunity for a total reset, a comprehensive solution to more than a century’s worth of economic problems. The odds of that, in most places that count, however, are rather slim. It’s far more likely that Westerners will endure a decade or two (or three) of painful stagnation followed by more of the same.

There are ways to personally prepare for some of this. You should be looking at them. And now. Looking at the TeeVee doesn’t count.

You’ve been warned. Again.

No Such Thing as a Free Lunch

25 Thursday May 2017

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Why not go ahead and make everyone billionaires? Worked so well in Rhodesia Zimbabwe Inflation-Land, Africa.

Suckerberg…

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg called on the need to consider universal basic income for Americans during his Harvard Commencement Speech.

Zuckerberg’s comments reflect those of other Silicon Valley bigwigs, including Sam Altman, the president of venture capital firm Y Combinator.

“Every generation expands its definition of equality. Now it’s time for our generation to define a new social contract,” Zuckerberg said during his speech. “We should have a society that measures progress not by economic metrics like GDP but by how many of us have a role we find meaningful. We should explore ideas like universal basic income to make sure everyone has a cushion to try new ideas.”

Zuckerberg said that, because he knew he had a safety net if projects like Facebook had failed, he was confident enough to continue on without fear of failing. Others, he said, such as children who need to support households instead of poking away on computers learning how to code, don’t have the foundation Zuckerberg had. Universal basic income would provide that sort of cushion, Zuckerberg argued.

“I’m from Farcebook and I’m here to help.”

Here’s a new idea: read Mises or something, Mark. Your Fed buddies and those idiots in D.C. could enrich everyone beyond belief in a few minutes. Safety nets entangle.

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One helluva cushion! Good for TP or fire starter! AFP / Getty / CNN.

Rise of the American Super Cities: 30-Year Forecasts

18 Thursday May 2017

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As promised last night, here is a look at a new study by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and IHS Markit:

U.S. Metro Economies: Past and Future Employment Levels, May, 2017.

The study looks 30 years into the future, taking into account demographic changes in hundreds of cities. If you’re young and looking for where the jobs will be, or if you’re older and looking for where the traffic won’t be, then this is something you need to look at.

The big city is getting bigger:

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IHS Markit.

The population numbers are in Table 8, page 54 – . New York and LA will continue to hold their top stops, first and second, respectively. But there will be five metros with populations over 10 Million and several more knocking on that level.

In 2046 Tampa will have as many people as Atlanta did when I lived there 20 years ago. And Atlanta will, then, be nearly the size of Chicago today.

In South Carolina, three cities – Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston – will exceed 1 Million people. Masters Town, USA will exceed 3/4 Million. Traffic jams and crime will ensue. And jobs. The good and the bad, together.

All sizes of cities are projected to grow. Gainesville, both in Georgia and in Florida, should peak over 300,000. That’s not Gotham, but it is no longer “sleepy”.

Have a look and see where your town falls. Remember, the bigger the city, the bigger the opportunities – and the troubles.

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IHS Markit.

 

 

Robots to Invade Disneyland, Kill Children, Steal Jobs

08 Saturday Apr 2017

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Here’s one more terrifying reason to speed up that planned visit to Orlando or Anaheim: the robots are coming.

Soft-body robots could someday be roaming Disney theme parks, playing animated, humanoid movie characters and interacting with visitors.

A new patent application by the entertainment giant doesn’t name specific characters, but it describes “designing a robot that will move and physically interact like an animated character.”

A prototype sketch filed with the patent application shows a round body, echoing the shape of the Baymax soft-robot character in Disney’s 2014 movie “Big Hero 6.” The application, and theme park observers, say the big issue for robotic interaction is safety. The document, dated Thursday, shows Disney research scientists in Pittsburgh have worked on prototypes identified only as “soft body 300” or “soft body 1000.”

“It’s hard to know why Disney decides to file for a patent, but they have been looking at soft-body robots since ‘Big Hero,’” said theme park writer Jim Hill. “Disney is still terrified that even with this soft technology, a robot could accidentally harm a child. They do a lot of testing.”

Some corrections: First, the droids are coming, period – no “could someday” about it. And no one is terrified, though they should be. The Disney men, Walt and Roy, are long gone. The people in charge now care more about your money than your kids’ experience or anything else.

Hundreds, maybe thousands of human Goofies, Donalds, and Princess Jasmines will be out of work. Ticket prices will rise. Lines will be long. Some kids will probably be eaten…

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Pinterest.

I warned you…

One Droid Enter, Six Men Leave

29 Wednesday Mar 2017

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That’s the ratio of human jobs lost to robots.

Job-stealing robots aren’t some distant scenario that’s unlikely to cause problems for another “50 to 100 years” from now, as Donald Trump’s treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said in an interview last week.

New research released from the National Bureau of Economic Research yesterday shows that between 1990 and 2007, when one or more industrial robots were introduced into the workforce, it led to the elimination of 6.2 jobs within a local area where people commute for work.

The report, which was authored by economists Daron Acemoglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University, found that the wages of workers also declined slightly as a result of robots entering the U.S. economy. Wages dropped between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent per 1,000 employees when one or more robots came into the picture.

Within the years studied, robots were responsible for the loss of up to 670,000 manufacturing jobs, a number that could rise as more companies are expected to turn to industrial robots in the coming years, according to the paper.

It started with heavy manufacturing. Then it moved to deliveries, checkouts, and gas pumps. Now the focus is on Uber and driverless vehicles. AI also cooks up some mean legal briefs though this hasn’t become mainstream yet. Yet. Next, in the very near future, robots and AI will write novels and perform surgeries.

This is all well and good until one ponders what jobs will be immune from automation. It seems any field is susceptible. What, exactly, will humans do with their free time and lack of employment?

irobot-robot

Business Insider / Asimov.

If history is a guide, then people will probably concentrate on making more people and killing more people. Habits are hard to break. Robots can and will move into those endeavors as well, particularly the latter.

*Perrin Lovett is an anti-robot bigot. Don’t say he didn’t warn you.

Labor Market “Better by Almost Any Measure”

10 Friday Mar 2017

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Not you would know it from SNL skits. This is good and surprising news.

America’s labor market might not be as great yet as President Donald Trump wants, but by almost any measure, it’s getting better.

Employers added an above-forecast 235,000 positions in February, while measures of joblessness and underemployment improved, the Labor Department’s monthly report showed on Friday. Wage growth picked up and the share of prime-age Americans in the labor force rose to the highest since 2011, suggesting the economy’s strength is drawing people off the sidelines.

There may be something to MAGA after all.

James Altucher on the Changing Job Market

04 Saturday Mar 2017

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James’s 10 New Reasons You Have To Quit Your Job In 2017 (2 of 10):

G) YOUR BOSS HAS TO FIRE YOU

If you create $1 in value, and you have a boss, who has a boss, who has a boss, who has a board, who has shareholders….then how much of that dollar do you get to keep?

Well, now we know the answer. In the 1960s, a CEO might make five times the average employee.

Now a CEO makes 200 times the average employee. The answer: you get none of the dollar and the CEO gets all of it.

And what is that dollar? It’s money you created for the company. More of it should be yours. But every day less of it is yours.

Who will get fired first? The slave drivers or the slaves?

We know the answer. Executives took billions of dollars in bonuses when the banks got $600 billion in bailout money from the US government in 2009.

And everyone else got fired.

This is not a political opinion. Or a suggestion on how things could have been different.

But it’s this: now we know the answer.

H) YOU DON’T NEED THE JOB TO BE HAPPY

Depression is highest in fully employed, first world countries. The two highest countries for depression? France and the United States.

We simply were not made to work 60 hours a week. Archaeologists figure that our paleo ancestors “worked” maybe 12 hours a week.

And then they would play, in order to keep up the skills needed to hunt and forage, etc.

Why is work depressing? Not all of these reasons but maybe some of them.

Being bossed around by people we don’t respect.
Being forced to be friends just because they share our cubicle walls and hear all of our whispered pleadings with romantic partners as we try to be as quiet as possible.
Meetings
Seeing the 80/20 rule in action where 20% of the employees create 80% of the value and the other 80% just barely (desperately, fearfully) survive.
Being mandated by an 800 page guidebook how you can talk to people of the opposite sex or of different skin colors.
Seeing corporate political agendas rule over financial realities and not being able to say anything about it for fear of being fired.
Spending 6am to 7pm getting ready for work, commuting to work, working, commuting back, too tired to move when you return home.
Falling in love, getting rejected, and seeing her every day and then crying in my cubicle.
Or maybe that last one was just me. A lot of crying.

Jobs are not so great. And they cause a lot of suffering. And you don’t really need them. Bear with me.

You may not be ready to leave your job, but your job is ready to leave you. And the robots are beating on the door. Maybe it’s time to start thinking about alternatives.

By the way, therein James mentions Elon Musk’s idea of a “universal basic income” – guaranteed money for everyone when no one has a job. He’s not for it or against it – just a mention. That too is something to consider (that most will not). It is an idea that will not work. Part of the reason why lies in the hellish banking/monetary/taxation/debt system I covered (tried to) yesterday.

The world is changing – same as it ever has. It’s good to look around from time to time.