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As promised last night, here is a look at a new study by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and IHS Markit:

U.S. Metro Economies: Past and Future Employment Levels, May, 2017.

The study looks 30 years into the future, taking into account demographic changes in hundreds of cities. If you’re young and looking for where the jobs will be, or if you’re older and looking for where the traffic won’t be, then this is something you need to look at.

The big city is getting bigger:


IHS Markit.

The population numbers are in Table 8, page 54 – . New York and LA will continue to hold their top stops, first and second, respectively. But there will be five metros with populations over 10 Million and several more knocking on that level.

In 2046 Tampa will have as many people as Atlanta did when I lived there 20 years ago. And Atlanta will, then, be nearly the size of Chicago today.

In South Carolina, three cities – Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston – will exceed 1 Million people. Masters Town, USA will exceed 3/4 Million. Traffic jams and crime will ensue. And jobs. The good and the bad, together.

All sizes of cities are projected to grow. Gainesville, both in Georgia and in Florida, should peak over 300,000. That’s not Gotham, but it is no longer “sleepy”.

Have a look and see where your town falls. Remember, the bigger the city, the bigger the opportunities – and the troubles.


IHS Markit.