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PERRIN LOVETT

~ Deo Vindice

PERRIN LOVETT

Tag Archives: statistics

Stunning Uncertainty

02 Friday Oct 2020

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Stunning Uncertainty

Tags

hoax, statistics, Trump

Mr. and Mrs. POTUS allegedly have the WuFlu. A moment of silence…

President Donald Trump said early Friday that he and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus, a stunning announcement that plunges the country deeper into uncertainty just a month before the presidential election.

For clarification, and assuming this is not a probable false positive result:

Trump only has a 94.6% chance of recovery without incident.

Melania has a 99.5% chance of recovery.

The show will continue, hopefully with Trump having ironed out implementation kinks in The Storm.

Deaths of Despair

05 Sunday Jul 2020

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes, Other Columns

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America, census, civilization, statistics, terminal decline, white people

It’s funny, in a horribly sad way. Yesterday, I was wrapping up yet another in my series of alternative escape nations – which is growing into something resembling a book and which I am told is a needed informational commodity. More on that later. But yesterday, for comparative purposes, I needed the approximate percentage of White People in the overall US population. I know it’s been falling year after year and so, based on an educated guess, I went with 60%. Then, last night, I found out that my guesses are as accurate as other people’s hard numbers; I read this.

Even this relatively small white population decline represents a significant demographic marker. First, if the data is confirmed in the full 2020 census, the 2010 to 2020 decade would be the first decade since the first census was taken in 1790 when the white population did not grow. White population gains in recent decades have grown smaller over time, from 11.2 million between 1970 and 1980 down to 2.8 million between 2000 and 2010. But a white population loss between 2010 and 2020 would be unprecedented.

Second, the Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups.

The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size. In 2019, the white median age was 43.7, compared to 29.8 for Latinos or Hispanics, 34.6 for Black residents, 37.5 for Asian Americans, and 20.9 for persons identifying as two or more races. The new census estimates show that, in contrast to other groups, white Americans sustained a natural decrease (an excess of deaths over births) of 1,073,206 over the 2010 to 2019 period. The loss was partially attenuated by the net gain of 1,056,594 white immigrants.

While a white growth decline could be anticipated, it was accentuated in the past few years by a reduction of births among young adult white women (likely a delayed reaction to the Great Recession) and an uptick in deaths, perhaps associated with drug-related “deaths of despair.” Also, as with other race-ethnic groups, white immigration to the U.S. recently slowed. Thus, the projected decline in the white population occurred eight years earlier than census projections predicted, contributing to the lower growth in the total U.S. population.

Sixty percent and falling. Not only a statistical loss, but probably a total numeric loss as well. We’re making history, kids! And we’re doing so by not having kids. Convenient, eh? The wonders of the multi-cult: everyone else soars, we die “deaths of despair.” White privilege, some would label it. I’m not so sure. Therefore, I have redoubled my efforts to get any young literal Americans, who want to go, going towards a nation with a future. Look for another set of alternate countries as earlier as tomorrow. And, sooner or later – hey, I’d better do it sooner, I guess – I’ll get to what may happen to those of us left in the new Tower of Babel.

Until then, feel free to sort through the Census estimates. Next year’s release should be an eye-opener for those who can still see (and read). For those who can’t, well, there’s the despair thing.

In closing, I think we should dig up Emanuel Celler’s rotting corpse, stake it, decapitate it, burn it to ashes, mix the ashes with Holy Water, and dump the sludge in the deepest sea. I hereby declare the alien meddler the evilest man who ever set foot in North America. The Words of John 8:44 were directly squarely to him.

The War on WAR

30 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by perrinlovett in Other Columns

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Tags

generals, history, statistics, War

Vox Day covered this a while back, but I thought it was worth mentioning again. Ethan Arsht calculated the “win above replacement” scores for generals throughout history.

The Results
Among all generals, Napoleon had the highest WAR (16.679) by a large margin. In fact, the next highest performer, Julius Caesar (7.445 WAR), had less than half the WAR accumulated by Napoleon across his battles. Napoleon benefited from the large number of battles in which he led forces. Among his 43 listed battles, he won 38 and lost only 5. Napoleon overcame difficult odds in 17 of his victories, and commanded at a disadvantage in all 5 of his losses. No other general came close to Napoleon in total battles. While Napoleon commanded forces in 43 battles, the next most prolific general was Robert E. Lee, with 27 battles (the average battle count was 1.5). Napoleon’s large battle count allowed him more opportunities to demonstrate his tactical prowess. Alexander the Great, despite winning all 9 of his battles, accumulated fewer WAR largely because of his shorter and less prolific career.

An impressive dataset and methodology, wherein the author admits to various flaws. Still, the peanut gallery had plenty to say – “What? Lee wasn’t that great?!” “You cite bad sources, sir!” – without offering a better model let alone building one. All very interesting.

Guns, Lies, and Tyranny

02 Friday Mar 2018

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

America, firearms, gun control, kids, law, lies, politics, Second Amendment, statistics, stupidity, truth

As promised yesterday, here’s today’s FP video feature, Stats Prove Guns Make America Safer, with gun, murder, and general death statistics:

Bill Whittle’s video:

YouTube.

With the highest gun ownership per capita in the world – by far – the US is only number 111 (of around 200 nations) in per capita murders. The left’s assertion that over-armed America is the murder capital of the world is a ridiculous lie. And, dear God, let’s NOT get into the statistics of who commits the largest measurable percentage of murders in America (hint: it’s not the Amish).

Gun murders and deaths, including those related to rifles (including “assault-style” rifles) are but a near microscopic fraction of total “unnatural” or “preventable” deaths in the US. From 2014:

248 people killed with rifles (all types including … assault rifles);

435 people killed with baseball bats and hammers;

660 people killed with punches and kicks;

8,124 people killed with guns of all kinds (offset by 1,000,000+ lives saved by all guns);

14,249 murders of/by all weapons sources (and unarmed murders);

32,744 killed by automobiles;

Approximately 200,000 killed by doctors and medical professionals;

Approximately 365,000 killed by obesity and fat-related causes;

652,639 killed by “legal” abortions.

One, if one is blind, deluded, and perhaps mentally deficient, or possibly evil, can easily see the way to best save lives in America is to ban the scary AR-15. (Better raise taxes while we’re at it).

The police will protect you … except that they won’t.

And no one ever uses an assault rifle to prevent crime or save lives … except that they do.

Yesterday I ran a rather incomplete, but illustrative, list of current and historic gun control proponents. Show me a tyrant, a dictator, a mass murderer, a genocidal maniac, or an active war-monger, and I’ll show you a loud and proud supporter of disarming the locals.

All of this figures largely into today’s Prepper News Weekly, which you should watch on a regular basis:

Perrin Lovett/FPTV/YouTube.

Yet and still, otherwise decent people, whether they be “average”or “ordinary” or powerful celebrities, continue to mindlessly (no thought, just emotions) clamor to be disarmed. To disarm you. It’s as infuriating as it is embarrassing.

The impressionable youth, students who will walk out of classes to support gun control, are almost understandable. Some (very few) of them are subject to being killed, in schools or without, by bad people armed with guns. Sure, they’re more likely to be killed by bees, lightning, and swimming pools, but those facts are … facts and not really governed by easily manipulated feelings. (Ever hear someone decry “assault-style” ionized plasmatic electricity from the sky?) No.

The kids are far more likely to be killed by incompetent doctors, sugary drinks and starchy carbs, and autos. And many millions of their cohorts never even made it to the schools thanks to Planned Parenthood (aka, Rehashed Nazi Eugenics, Inc.). On that last note, an interesting, telling political cartoon:

EP-302229773.jpg

Andy Marlette, Pensacola News Journal (via the Tampa Bay Times).

That’s good and bad rhetoric all in one, Mr. Marlette. There’s a vague truth behind it: “conservative” Republicans types, like Rick “Make it 21!” Scott, will claim to be anti-abortion. They’re not. For all the claims, there’s been remarkably little (read: NO) action since 1973 to curtail abortions. The slight numerical decline is more attributable to contraception, lifestyle changes, and the antics of the … um … Junior Anti-Sex League.

The young cartoon lady is well-instructed that the well-dressed, well-fed elephant does not care about her in or out of the womb. His only concerns are: appeasing his corporate overlords, and; getting reelected. (Yes, these are most similar to the real desires of his goofy-looking jackass “opponent”). The rhetorical truth evaporates. Then, mathematically considering the 80:1 and 2,600:1 ratios from 2014, above, the real truth interrupts with force.

For the politicians, especially the currently-in-charge GOPers, there can be no understanding, no sympathy. “Mindless shits” comes descriptively to mind.

“The schools are terrible because the teachers are incompetent, but arm the teachers.”

“No, don’t arm the teachers. Raise the gun-buying age and put a SWAT team in every school. Metal detectors! More drugs!”

“Okay. Let’s ban bump stocks (unnecessary to bump fire anyway)”.

“Take the guns first, due process second.”

Gibber. Gibber. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Stupidity to make Democrats look sane by comparison. (One notices that, largely, the Dems are silently hanging back now, allowing the fat, stupid elephants, the kids, and the corporations to fight this one – a wise strategy).

The due process thing is really alarming. Not many of ye old Rights of Englishmen still exist in dying America. DP is kind of important. And it’s kind of under siege. And not just from The Trump. He says a lot of things, many of them unwise sounding:

President Trump on Wednesday voiced support for confiscating guns from certain individuals deemed to be dangerous, even if it violates due process rights.

“I like taking the guns early, like in this crazy man’s case that just took place in Florida … to go to court would have taken a long time,” Trump said at a meeting with lawmakers on school safety and gun violence.

“Take the guns first, go through due process second,” Trump said.

Trump was responding to comments from Vice President Pence that families and local law enforcement should have more tools to report potentially dangerous individuals with weapons.

Giving the orange man the benefit of the doubt, which I tire of doing, I’m sure he means what he says in limited, emergency circumstances. There are actually times when a situation sort of dictates dispensing with the technicalities of formal due process.

For instance, if a police officer sees someone committing (or about to start committing) what the officer reasonably believes to be a crime or dangerous activity, then the officer is lawfully authorized to use force, up to and including lethal force, to stop said crime or activity. No need to trouble a judge up-front. It happens all the time. And it many times doesn’t even involve the police; see the linked example of the armed citizen of Illinois, above.

And there is, in such emergency situations, a built-in due process anyway: people know or should know not to commit or attempt to commit crimes! At least not where others might see them. And with the expectation that they might be resisted if they proceed. It’s as much common sense as it used to be common law.

You know, the common law with the due process specter floating around?

“No person shall … be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law …” (5th Amend., U.S. Const., as amended, 1791)(See also: Amend. 14).

If there is to be formal legal action, then it needs to take place before any subsequent state taking action. Before, first, Donald, not second. And a gun would seem to fit the description of “property.” Of course, explaining this to a man who will use executive, administrative action, in defiance of Articles I and II, to ban superfluous rifle accessories, seems tenuous. Then again, the man says a lot of things; sometimes he rationally clarifies afterwards. Time will tell, time permitting.

It’s odd, given The Trump’s hasty pronouncements and the quasi-legal developments of the past 20 years, that he does not (yet) take a similar approach to the deep state, the treasonous lukers, the pizza-lovers, the banksters, and the Dreamers. Would not a delayed due process, say via Enemy Combatant proceedings, benefit the stabilization of whatever remains of this political mess? Dunno but, the fact that I, a anarcho-libertarian type, would even ask such a question speaks to where we really are in the here and now…

This article runs a little long but it is worth considering the whole of the fallen government and how it reacts to the law. Joe Bob Briggs considers the TeeVee-ification of the Third Branch:

The genius element of the English justice system is the invention in the Middle Ages of the state prosecutor, or, in its original incarnation, the king’s prosecutor. His purpose was to keep vengeance out of the courtroom. Before that you had the aggrieved-kinsman system. The suffering family brought charges against the alleged offender, so that if a Hatfield killed a McCoy, it was up to the McCoys to file charges, and if the Hatfield was found guilty, the McCoys were allowed to take vengeance in the form of executing the offender themselves. Eye for an eye, family member for family member, murder for murder, rape for rape. This is the system that, in various forms, still exists today in many Muslim cultures, and it’s the system that we supposedly got rid of 800 years ago after agreeing that eye-for-an-eye is not what we wanted. Henceforth the only person allowed to bring criminal charges was an unbiased public official representing the state and the people, and that person had to be emotionally uninvolved with either side of the case.

Then, as the court system developed in England and America, we became strict about excluding from trials anyone who had any kind of bias, even if he otherwise qualified as a witness. In fact, bias caused by friendship or blood relation is one of the principal ways that witnesses are impeached.

…

*Please read the whole original at Taki’s, via the above hyperlink.*

Our courts, judges, and prosecutors are every bit as out of control as their legislative and executive counterparts. It’s a very good article as are most that pass through that source. Still, I will note that there was a time and place for private prosecutions, ones involving really process and decorum. The Romans, for example, ran a system of private felony proceedings similar to those used in their major civil cases. The aggrieved party, usually of Patrician class, brought charges and prosecuted them before the whole Senate or before a large jury of the accused’s actual friends, his peers.

We don’t do that anymore … to our detriment. We still, to a degree, use the Roman system of magistrates to quickly resolve minor cases. But the felonies are now handled by self-serving government agents, before government judges, with government witnesses, all before a jury carefully selected so as to favor the government. In short: you are screwed.

Maybe the Romans, like the ancient English, were a little more civilized. More honest. More intelligent. “We” certainly tend to be none of those things.

Also, to partly answer Joe Bob, the changes (to due process, equal protection, etc.) may have started prior to the 1980’s. It might have come through the example of 1945-46 and the Nuremberg Trials, which essentially threw out hundreds, thousands even, of years of legal refinement. Threw them out for temporary expedience and feel-good-isms. And with ramifications for the future.

And so we are left with a system based on: ignoring facts, ignoring history, emotionally driven nonsense, collectivist actions, always geared towards taking the maximum amount of freedoms away from the maximum numbers of innocent or disconnected persons.

248 bad actors (calm down CNN, Google – not those actors) kill people with rifles, some of them surely “assault-ish,” while 100 Million good actors remain armed, responsible, peaceful, and vigilant. The solution is to disarm the many over the actions of the few?

That’s the “thought.” The thought of today’ do-good grabbers and of Hitler, Himmler, Mao, Stalin, Amin, Hussein, and Pot. A somewhat disconcerting truth and conundrum.

Liberals Surprised to Find Immigration has Consequences

26 Friday May 2017

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Liberals Surprised to Find Immigration has Consequences

Tags

America, health, immigration, liberals, news, SJW, statistics, Verizon

They of course do not admit as much.

My marvelous smartphone occasionally sends me “news” updates as picked by Verizon. From the character of these I take it Verizon is a “converged” outfit, in the SJW sense. I usually delete this material on sight. However, I did read the following article:

Why Americans Are So Damn Unhealthy, In 4 Shocking Charts

I write about Americans all the time. I write about health too. This one was interesting to me.

Since the early 1970s, most developed countries have followed a similar trajectory: They have increased spending on health care and seen some impressive gains in life expectancy.

But one nation stands out for profligate spending and poor outcomes: The US has spent more than any other nation on health care, while its citizens still die fairly young. Among 23 nations who have been members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) since the early 1970s, only Turkey — which spends a tiny fraction of what Americans lavish on health care — lags behind the US on life expectancy. Japan leads the OECD with a life expectancy of 83.7 in 2014, almost four years longer than the US.

While some OECD countries, including the UK, have single-payer, government-run health care, this isn’t what separates the US from the rest of the pack. Switzerland, for instance, delivers almost universal coverage in a system that relies on competing private insurance companies.

Judged on life expectancy and other health outcomes, parts of the US look like the developing world.

There’s a reason for that last bit – which is true. Actually there is a lot of truth in this article. For as much as we spend on healthcare and related items, most Americans are horribly unhealthy. The author’s solution is, of course, to spend more. As everything good flows directly from the beneficial bounty of big government, it only follows that only government can make people feel better and live longer…

Or it could be that most of that spending is wasted. Profits for the industry, the insurance racket, and autocrats sore as health fails. Or it could be that Americans perpetually sit on the couch, eating garbage and watching the brain-killing, diabetes-inducing idiot box. Could be.

The trend could also be explained by the massive demographic shifts which have plagued America since Emanuel Celler’s 1965 law began the fundamental transformation of America – for the worse.

Parts of the U.S. look like the third world judging by more than just life expectancy. Much of the country, now, IS the third world.

Look at the graphs from the article, especially the following. It tracks life expectancy verses healthcare spending from 1973 to 2014.

anigif_sub-buzz-31244-1495213340-4

Some improvements, yes, but pitiful compared to other nations. Why? How? 1973 was about the time that the 1965 Immigration Act started taking effect, started taking America away from the circle of civilized, developed nations. Compare the foregoing chart with this graph:

1965 act impact

New York Immigration Coalition.

The effects are clear as a bell. Hart, Celler, and Kennedy lied through their fangs when they claimed there would be no net change in the national demographic composition – there’s been nothing but change. Change has consequences. And it keeps changing. The following shows the rough racial makeup of America from 1790 to a projected 2070 (not that far away):

PERCENTsml

American Renaissance.

And the changes brought changes. All of those other comparison developed nations have something in common: homogenous populations, or more homogenous populations than America’s. Turkey is virtually 100% Turkish. Switzerland, despite ruthless efforts to diversify it, is virtually 100% Swiss. Japan is stubbornly, xenophobically near 100% Japanese.

It turns out that importing the various residents of the lower world has more consequences than tasty ethnic foods, collapsing academic testing results, 9/11, and Islamic bomb factories in Minneapolis. It also means imported foreign health issues and genetic disposition. This stuff is real, like it or not.

Arriving in the remains of the U.S., the newcomers from Africa, Asia, South America, and the Middle East must certainly experience some benefits. Their overall health scores increase relative to their counterparts back home. The native whites (and blacks) also see slow increases for the better. Yet, all succumb to one degree or another to the effects of the new sedentary lifestyle, the slow death of fast food, etc. And the imports have a cumulative effect on the whole.

The graphs don’t explain everything though they do raise some questions … or answers. Why are Americans so damned unhealthy? Maybe it’s because they’re ceasing to be Americans.

Perrin Lovett

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