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PERRIN LOVETT

~ Deo Vindice

PERRIN LOVETT

Tag Archives: economy

Likely to Get Much Worse…

23 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Likely to Get Much Worse…

Tags

economics, economy, Federal Reserve, sorcery

The narcotic references speak for themselves.

“The repo market has been drugged into submission by the Fed,” said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research. “That’s fine for a while. But what I am getting concerned about is that they’re not figuring a way to get it off the drug and get it back to normal, and that will be a problem longer term for them.”

Investors have long complained about the Fed hand-holding the market, injecting trillions of dollars in liquidity and keeping interest rates artificially low during and after the financial crisis.

This is a different situation, though.

Rather than looking to goose the economy back to health, the Fed is now using its balance sheet to make sure banks have enough reserves and an adequate amount of capital is flowing through the system to keep things running efficiently. The effort also is aimed at keeping the Fed’s own overnight funds rate within the 25 basis point target range it employs.

It’s like an addict who has to keep getting the fix, not for a new high, but to keep from going into withdrawals. This is your economy. This is your economy on sorcery.

RPC explains that this is a global and system-wide issue.

Today central banks not only support bond prices by heavy purchases, they do the same thing in the equity market. The Bank of Japan, for example, owns 77.5% of Japan’s ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) market, having bought nearly 23 trillion yen of the ETF market since 2013. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/kuroda-defends-japan-central-banks-etf-buying-sees-no-near-term-exit-idUSKBN1O602Q

The Federal Reserve owns assets equal to 20% of US GDP. The European Central Bank owns assets equal to 40% of the euro-zone economy. The Bank of Japan’s asset hoard now exceeds the Japanese economy in size. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/bank-of-japan-s-hoard-of-assets-is-now-bigger-than-the-economy

With this background, we can now get on with the story.

For a decade we have had a stock market based on (1) the profits from lower labor costs by producing offshore the goods and services corporations sell to Americans, thereby destroying the American middle class and the tax base of cities and states, (2) the use of corporate profits for buying back the corporations’ stock, and by borrowing to buy back stock, thus decapitalizing the corporations in order to support stock prices, managerial bonuses and shareholder capital gains, and (3) Quantitative Easing (QE) which pumped trillions of dollars into US financial markets, thus pushing up the prices of financial assets. If the money the Federal Reserve created in order to support the solvency of the “banks too big to fail” had gone into the economy, hyperinflation in consumer prices would have been the result. Instead the money caused inflation in the prices of financial assets, and this is the explanation of why a small percentage of people—shareholders—have accumulated most of the gains in income and wealth.

The extraordinary increase in the inequality of incomes in the United States is the consequence of using economic policy to support the New York Banks, which has meant supporting the prices of the bad assets on their balance sheets.

In America today truth gets no respect from anyone whether right, left, liberal, conservative, Democrat, Republican. The idiot Hillary has alleged that the only sane Democrat—Tulsi Gabbard— is a Russian agent! It blows the mind. And the presstitutes treat the absurd allegation as if it is a fact.

Right on all counts. The sorcery has begotten inequality that begins to look like slavery. Most people seem okay, at present, with the situation. One wonders when and how that will change. Ask any addict – the crash always comes.

After some bad news…

26 Thursday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on After some bad news…

Tags

economics, economy, stagnation

More bad news. About the kitchen table economics.

Though the gap between the richest and poorest expanded, the nation’s median household income topped $63,000 for the first time – though after adjusting for inflation, it’s roughly the same as it was 20 years ago.

The persistent rise in inequality has become a central topic in the 2020 presidential race, with candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren calling for a wealth tax. This week, Sanders announced his plan for a wealth tax as high as 8% on the ultrawealthy, which would raise $4.35 trillion over a decade, according to analysis by economists who consulted with the Warren and Sanders campaigns.

“There should be no billionaires,” Sanders tweeted to announce his plan. “We are going to tax their extreme wealth and invest in working people.”

Yes, yes. It’s all minimum wage and the billionaires holding us back. Totally not the funny money financial sorcery!

If the people weren’t jealous and stupid, they could see through Bernie’s rhetoric. The rich, even those of sorcerous origins, don’t swim around in pools of cash like Scrooge McDuck. That extreme wealth is what keeps working people working. The effective zero percent increase in buying power is something he could latch onto – if he wasn’t part of the problem. Same with Warren. Maybe ditto for Trump. And, if one thinks anything to do with the minimum wage has any bearing on … I’ll just let that go.

Should I ever seek the office of Emperor, I’ll put all this (and more!) in my “issues” section. Until then, you have this Highly Respected Web Log.

A preview from “The Substitute” coming later this evening!

About the NY Fed Funny Money – From TPC

24 Tuesday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

economy, Federal Reserve, sorcery, TPC

“Robbery in Progress at 33 Liberty Street!”

…Said no policeman ever.

“In globalist Amerika, banks rob you!” – old Russian joke (and true).

So, early last week, interesting news broke that the New York Federal Reserve Bank was deploying a little cash in order to maintain interest rates. When one eases quantitatively, the quantities are relative. It turns out “a little” equals about (or, easily could equal about) $2,300,000,000,000 (two trillion, three-hundred billion dollars). Chump change, right? Back to the climate hoaxes and football rape telethons!

But, this is serious. On Monday, September the 16th, the NY Fed started pumping $75 Billion per day into the commercial banks. This will continue through and until October 10th. That’s $1.875 Trillion right there. As a bonus, the crooks, er, the Fed will also spring $420 Billion in REPO BUCKS!!! (like a lottery game or something)(14 days X $30 Billion per day) in an attempt to gift yet more free fake money to the constituent ownership of the Fed. If this seems to you a tad self-serving, then you’re on to something.

All of this is happening during what we are assured are the very best of economic times. And, again, it’s all taking place in a span of less than a month. !Poof! Just like that the banksters have another $2.3 Trillion to play with, waste, or hoard. Temporally – and this is really fun stuff – $2.3 Trillion was the value of the entire economy as recently as 1950. In other words, what took previous generations 174 years to accumulate, the Fed just summons up out of the Dark Crystal instantly. This is why I now refer to what passes as practical economics as “sorcery.” There’s no other label that fits.

What’s the deal with the rates? The Fed, in acts of utter desperation to forestall a depression or worse, is lower borrowing rates towards zero. Then, they’ll go negative. How far into negative territory doesn’t really matter. Interest rates are the cost, the price of borrowing money – how much the money is itself worth as a stand-alone item. Negative rates indicate a situation worse than worthlessness, of positively detrimental values. The total fulfillment (and beyond) of Gresham’s Law.

The news suggests how bad things are. If the Fed adjusts rates downwards, but then has to bribe the banks to take the cheaper money, then that means the effective rates are already even lower and falling. It’s like robbing Peter, so they can afford to rob Paul. Literally anyone else would be in jail. Ask Bernie Madoff. Excuses aplenty will be quietly provided. The dog ate my liquidity, Mrs. Wall Street! You may safely believe whichever of them you like. Just know that all of it is a sham.

…

THE WHOLE CRASS MESSAGE AT TPC!

Or 2477%

10 Tuesday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Or 2477%

Tags

debt, economy

Measuring (low estimate) derivative totals against GDP. Or, this is bad enough.

Total potential debt for the U.S. by one all-encompassing measure is running close to 2,000% of GDP, according to an analysis that suggests danger but also cautions against reading too much into the level.

AB Bernstein came up with the calculation — 1,832%, to be exact — by including not only traditional levels of public debt like bonds but also financial debt and all its complexities as well as future obligations for so-called entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and public pensions.

Putting all that together paints a daunting picture but one that requires nuance to understand. Paramount is realizing that not all of the debt obligations are set in stone, and it’s important to know where the leeway is, particularly in the government programs that can be changed either by legislation or accounting.

All perfectly healthy, huh? When will CNBC’s “buy, buy, buy!” turn into “bye, bye, bye?”

Debt and the New Dark Age

08 Monday Apr 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

≈ Comments Off on Debt and the New Dark Age

Tags

dark age, debt, economics, economy, Vox Day

Vox Day and Michael Hudson have it right about the doom of debts in society.

Jesus wasn’t just talking about sin when he told us to pray for the forgiveness of our debts. That’s one of the reasons the Pharisees hated him so much. Michael Hudson is interviewed concerning a very important trilogy of economic history he is writing:

MH: The key public concern throughout history has been to prevent debt from crippling society. That aim is what Babylonian and other third-millennium and second-millennium Near Eastern rulers recognized clearly enough, with their mathematical models. To make an ideal society you need the government to control the basic utilities — land, finance, mineral wealth, natural resources and infrastructure monopolies (including the Internet today), pharmaceuticals and health care so their basic services can be supplied at the lowest price.

All this was spelled out in the 19th century by business school analysts in the United States. Simon Patten [1852-1922] who said that public investment is the “fourth factor of production.” But its aim isn’t to make a profit for itself. Rather, it’s to lower the cost of living and of doing business, by providing basic needs either on a subsidized basis or for free. The aim was to create a low-cost society without a rentier class siphoning off unearned income and making this economic rent a hereditary burden on the economy at large. You want to prevent unearned income.

To do that, you need a concept to define economic rent as unearned and hence unnecessary income. A well-managed economy would do what Adam Smith, David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, Marx and Veblen recommended: It would prevent a hereditary rentier class living off unearned income and increasing society’s economic overhead. It’s okay to make a profit, but not to make extractive monopoly rent, land rent or financial usury rent.

JS: Will human beings ever create such a society?

MH: If they don’t, we’re going to have a new Dark Age.

If an executive order and some attendant regulations can ban bump stocks, then some similar measures could easily make debt (all of it) illegal. Usurers would turn in their notes to the police to be destroyed. Future usury would become a felony. There’s also bankruptcy; if Congress could be bothered to govern, they could involuntarily draft everyone (including the US government, the states, and the cities) into court for mandatory clean-slating.

Or we could just have the dark age.

Priced Out

05 Friday Apr 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Priced Out

Tags

averages, debt, economics, economy, money, prices, real estate

Numbers don’t lie.  Politicians and economists do.

There (before the last housing bubble) was this rule of thumb: hypothetical folks could afford (via debt instruments) a house costing approximately three times their annual income. Applying that rule in 2019 works like this: $63,000 per year income X 3 = $189,000 home price (with zero down and no costs, etc.). The $63,000 is the average American household income. Therefore, through the magic of usurious multiplication, the average American family should be able to purchase a $189K home.

It doesn’t work out quite that way sometimes. Other debts and expenses eat away at the equation. But, by the old rule, and with a little money down (or some extra financial tricks), Ma and Pa ‘Murica should hypothetically be able to buy the average All-American home for around $200,000. Except, they can’t do that.

Even if all the tricks are in play, it all falls apart because the average US house now sells for $300,000.

The median asking price for a U.S. home hit $300,000 for the first time ever in March, according to housing data from Realtor.com to be released later Thursday and provided early to USA TODAY. That topped the previous peak of $299,000 reached in June and July of last year.

Is there a new 5X rule? It would fit with the new average waistline anyway. But, no. People are just being priced out of the average. That’s now, during the boom to end all booms. If and when prices fall, look for incomes to do the same.

We definitely need more foreign wage competitors in the USE. More financialization too. More politicians and economists.

A Tale of Two Bombs

21 Wednesday Nov 2018

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

bombs, debt, economy, terrorism, UK

The UK MUST REMAIN! Or else BREXITers and Tommy Robinson fans will keep leaving bombs in abandoned apartments!

Two suspected bombs have been found in a disused flat in north-west London, sparking a large counter-terror operation.

Two suspicious items were found at a flat in Craven Park, Harlesden, this morning and are believed to be improvised explosive devices.

The flat was evacuated and the area cordoned off while detectives from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command launched an investigation.

The two devices were subsequently made safe and recovered from the flat and are now undergoing further forensic examination.

There is no way these alleged weapons could have been made by the new “Britons,” Allah, honor them.

And, there’s no chance the criminals responsible for this bomb will ever answer for their crimes.

At first glance, it looks like a $9 trillion time bomb is ready to detonate, a corporate debt load that has escalated thanks to easy borrowing terms and a seemingly endless thirst from investors.

On Wall Street, though, hopes are fairly high that it’s a manageable problem, at least for the next year or two.

The resolution is critical for financial markets under fire. Stocks are floundering, credit spreads are blowing out and concern is building that a combination of higher interest rates on all that debt will begin to weigh meaningfully on corporate profit margins.

Do not worry. This debt can always be written down or refinanced – either or both at your expense. This is in contrast to your debts. Look for a bi-partisan tightening of (non-corporate) bankruptcy laws in a year or two, roughly the same timeframe for this particular bomb going off. Jubilee for them, slavery for you.

Both of these stories involve terrorism. Neither will result in meaningful action.

Time to Audit? End?

11 Thursday Oct 2018

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

DOW, economics, economy, Federal Reserve, Sears, Trump

As the DOW goes through another sell-off and we prepare to say goodbye to Sears (I think Roebuck is already deceased), could it be that President Trump is finally turning the MAGA lens on the Fed???

President Donald Trump slammed the Federal Reserve as “going loco” for its interest-rate increases this year in comments hours after the worst U.S. stock market sell-off since February.

Trump said in a telephone interview on Fox News late Wednesday night the market plunge wasn’t because of his trade conflict with China: “That wasn’t it. The problem I have is with the Fed,” he said. “The Fed is going wild. They’re raising interest rates and it’s ridiculous.”

“That’s not the problem,” he said of the trade standoff. “The problem in my opinion is the Fed,” he added. “The Fed is going loco.”

Channel that inner Ron Paul, MAGA Man! We need no loco banqueros. End it!

The Gig is Up

25 Tuesday Sep 2018

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on The Gig is Up

Tags

economy, gigs, money, work

Small, independent entrepreneurs are finding it harder to make a buck in a booming, changing economy.

The “gig” economy might not be the new frontier for America’s workforce after all.

From Uber to TaskRabbit to YourMechanic, so-called gig work — task-oriented work offered by online apps — has been promoted as providing the flexibility and independence that traditional jobs don’t offer. Yet the evidence is growing that over time, these jobs don’t deliver the financial returns many workers expect.

And they don’t appear to be reshaping the workforce. Over the past two years, pay for gig workers has dropped, and they are earning a growing share of their income elsewhere, a new study finds. Most Americans who earn income through online platforms do so for only a few months each year, according to the study by the JPMorgan Chase Institute released Monday.

So many reasons why. Many you know. This may help explain why we have about as many self-employed people in America as we have prisoners and convicts. The one they want, the other they don’t.

Meh.

Grin and Bear It: Agreeing with Goldman for Once

10 Monday Sep 2018

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Grin and Bear It: Agreeing with Goldman for Once

Tags

economy, Goldman Sachs, recession

Hey, it’s time. Really, we’re overdue. So says The Goldman Sachs…

A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. indicator designed to provide a “reasonable signal for future bear-market risk” has risen to the highest in almost 50 years. The firm’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on measures of equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve, is now at levels last seen in 1969. While the gauge is at levels that have historically preceded a bear market, Goldman strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note last week that a long period of relatively low returns from stocks is a more likely alternative.

Yes, per the graph we are in the longest run in modern history. Also, pay attention to the percentages and when they were the highest.

800x-1

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