Gary Shilling thinks the US is already in a mild recession. I’ve been saying we hit the first phase of a narrow double-dip a few months ago. The rest is coming.
Gary Shilling, an economist and financial analyst who is credited with predicting several recessions over the past 40 years, thinks the U.S. is in a relatively mild slump.
“I think we’re probably already in a recession but I think it will probably be a run-of-the-mill affair, which means real GDP would decline 1.5% to 2%, not the 3.5% to 4% you had in the very serious recessions,” Shilling, president of economic and financial research firm A. Shilling & Co., said in a recent interview broadcast this week by Real Vision.
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Shilling points to:
• Declining industrial production, a result of a weak global economy and the Trump administration’s trade war with China.
• Feeble job growth of 75,000 in May, along with downward revisions to prior months.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recession probability chart, which shows about a 30% chance of a downturn the next 12 months, up from about 10% early this year. That data is based on an inversion of the yield curve, which has shown rates on 3-month Treasury bonds topping 10-year notes recently – a sign that investors don’t have much faith in the longer-term outlook. Inversions do herald recessions but often two years in advance.
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s leading economic indicators, which has edged down since last year.
• Shilling also cites weak housing data, though he notes falling mortgage rates have bolstered home sales in recent months.
Funny, when one looks at real metrics and tangibles how the story changes from the boom-boom-boom narrative. The DOW and the newsmen salesmen on CNBC are not the final authorities. And, remember, statistically, this is all overdue.
