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PERRIN LOVETT

~ Deo Vindice

PERRIN LOVETT

Tag Archives: economics

The Bright Shiny Service Economy

01 Tuesday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

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economics, liars, lies, manufacturing, recession, servcies

The recession is becoming palpable, moving out of bond curve graphs and into the factories.

A gauge of U.S. manufacturing showed the lowest reading in more than 10 years in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war.

The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Any figure below 50% signals a contraction.

The new export orders index was only 41%, the lowest level since March 2009, down from the August reading of 43.3%, ISM data showed.

“We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

The Bleak Advisor is likely a liar or an idiot. Other lies are told. Amazingly, about the only authority figure hitting on a little truth is the Trump. Thank God for the impeachment hoax! Otherwise, with a severe downturn coming, he might not be re-electable. And anyway, why does this matter??? I recall, some 30 years ago during my third-rate government high school “education,” someone telling us that in the happy future of tomorrow all employment would be in the easy, computerized service sector. Nothing produced, a shame since everyone would have tons of spending money from their high-tech fantasy jobs.

If we had an Index of Official Lies, the baseline would be a hockey stick curve in perpetuity.

The Shirt Index

29 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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economics, finance, inflation, JCPenney, sorcery

The WSJ has a story about what would have been, in any other age, the epitamy of economic insanity – financing sneakers and sweaters. Read that, it’s … great.

I looked for a sweater comparison, over time. The best I could (easily) come up with were men’s shirts at JCPenney.

2019:

Screenshot 2019-09-29 at 12.02.44 PM

1980:

Screenshot 2019-09-29 at 12.00.57 PM

(Regular price is still less expensive than the 2019 sale and less than 60% off the non-sale 2019 model – plus one got the disco-safari theme…)

1958:

Screenshot 2019-09-29 at 12.09.05 PM

(See where this is going?)

1928:

Screenshot 2019-09-29 at 12.10.15 PM

(That’s in cents, not dollars…)

Today, one can finance a new, regular-priced shirt for several payments, each equal to about the total cost of a 1980 shirt, which was still 15 times more expensive than the same thing fifty years earlier. “Inflation” ain’t the word anymore.

These are cheaply manufactured goods whose nominal production costs have fallen (in and of themselves) due to technology and offshoring, etc. Still, regular price to regular price, the modern equivalent is fifty times more expensive than the same thing 90 years before. Averaging the (easily) available IRS data on average incomes from 1920 and 1929, the 1928 American annual wage was about $2,200. Apples to sweaters, the average American, now, should be earning $110,000 per year. Yet, somehow the BLS reports that the true 2019 pay is only $47K, which itself seems a tad high. You’re 57% behind the price of shirts at JCP. Thank God there’s the Goodwill Store, right?

Sorcery is the gift that keeps on taking.

The Bankster Speaks

28 Saturday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

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demographics, economics, evil, Federal Reserve, invasion

With a forked tongue. Liars gonna lie.

Proposals to curb immigration will weigh on economic growth in the United States where the existing workforce is growing more slowly as the population ages, Dallas Federal Reserve president Robert Kaplan said on Thursday.

“If you think you are actually going to cut the number of immigrants and grow GDP, those two things do not go together … You need to grow the workforce,” Kaplan said.

He suggested the United States consider reforms that would allow more immigration based on surveys of needed skills. “Trade and immigration loom very large as opportunities for the U.S. to grow faster as opposed to threats.”

Kaplan. Kaplan. Why does that name??? Nevermind. Wouldn’t it be weird if there was some way to increase the workforce without invasion? Crazy, I know.

After some bad news…

26 Thursday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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Tags

economics, economy, stagnation

More bad news. About the kitchen table economics.

Though the gap between the richest and poorest expanded, the nation’s median household income topped $63,000 for the first time – though after adjusting for inflation, it’s roughly the same as it was 20 years ago.

The persistent rise in inequality has become a central topic in the 2020 presidential race, with candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren calling for a wealth tax. This week, Sanders announced his plan for a wealth tax as high as 8% on the ultrawealthy, which would raise $4.35 trillion over a decade, according to analysis by economists who consulted with the Warren and Sanders campaigns.

“There should be no billionaires,” Sanders tweeted to announce his plan. “We are going to tax their extreme wealth and invest in working people.”

Yes, yes. It’s all minimum wage and the billionaires holding us back. Totally not the funny money financial sorcery!

If the people weren’t jealous and stupid, they could see through Bernie’s rhetoric. The rich, even those of sorcerous origins, don’t swim around in pools of cash like Scrooge McDuck. That extreme wealth is what keeps working people working. The effective zero percent increase in buying power is something he could latch onto – if he wasn’t part of the problem. Same with Warren. Maybe ditto for Trump. And, if one thinks anything to do with the minimum wage has any bearing on … I’ll just let that go.

Should I ever seek the office of Emperor, I’ll put all this (and more!) in my “issues” section. Until then, you have this Highly Respected Web Log.

A preview from “The Substitute” coming later this evening!

The Wisdom of the “Family” Houses

24 Tuesday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

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"family" houses, cash, economics

The Ken Fishers say all is well, better than well, while the “Family” Houses – like the cosa nostra, but richer – hoard the cash.

Rick Stone, a former partner at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, sees treacherous times ahead for family offices trying to deploy cash.

The head of Stone Family Office said he doubts the bond market will provide any real return over the next decade, that equity markets will suffer a substantial drop and then be flat, and that too much venture capital and private equity money will continue to chase too few opportunities.

“It’s a very hard time for family offices to allocate money,” said Stone, 60, whose initial wealth came from class-action litigation fees.

Stone has a good vantage point on the action, since he runs the bi-monthly meetings of the Palm Beach Investment Research Group, a network of 35 family offices in Palm Beach, Florida. “The areas to invest in are fewer, and there is a lot of money looking for those spaces,” he said.

That view of the markets is shared by many of the 360 global single- and multi-family offices surveyed for the 2019 UBS Global Family Office Report, which was done in conjunction with Campden Research and released Monday. A majority expect the global economy to enter a recession by 2020, with the highest percentage of gloomy respondents in emerging markets. About 42% of family offices around the world are raising cash reserves.

Can you afford to raise your reserves? Ken Fisher would say “yes,” but call you foolish for doing so. They also project.

Shifty Little Lies

23 Monday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

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debt, economics, lies, sorcery, usury

The liars tell them. Ken Fisher, who makes a healthy living off of usury, defends usury.

America’s massive debt will doom us. That’s common wisdom, but wrong.

In Manhattan, a giant clock displays not only the total – almost $23 trillion for now – but your share, ticking up every second. Pundits say it’s trouble. But U.S. debt fears have lurked forever, and those troubles are no closer now than decades ago. In some ways, they’re further off.

Here’s how to see that, using tools that show when debt truly becomes problematic.

The $23 trillion total seems jaw-dropping but says little about what really matters: How readily Uncle Sam can pay the piper.

Pundits cite our debt-to-GDP ratio as evidence of a debt addiction. With $21 trillion of GDP, that ratio is 103% — lower than Italy’s and Japan’s, but higher than Germany’s and Britain’s. Debt topping GDP sounds dire. But that’s misleading. The federal government itself owns more than a quarter of U.S. debt, money the government essentially owes itself. It’s an accounting entry. As an asset and a liability, it effectively cancels out. Otherwise, net outstanding public debt is $16.7 trillion— 76% of GDP. That’s still unimportant.

All deceit. Notice the de-link from “we owe it to ourselves” (a lie) to “government owes itself” (also a lie)? So, so clever. If it canceld out, it would have been canceled out. We’ve covered that before. Fisher – you may have seen one of his clever commercials on CNBC – is like a puff of smoke next to the Wizard’s grand, booming presentation (of lies).

Believe a con artist salesman who makes a living selling lies (and usury), or believe the worst of our enemies, who sometimes manage to tell a little self-interested truth. Says the BIS:

“The room for monetary policy maneuver has narrowed further. Should a downturn materialize, monetary policy will need a helping hand, not least from a wise use of fiscal policy in those countries where there is still room for maneuver.

Against this backdrop, sovereign bond yields naturally declined further, at times driven by the prospect of slower economic activity and heightened risks, at others by central banks’ reassuring easing measures. At one point, before the recent uptick in yields, the amount of sovereign and even corporate bonds trading at negative rates hit a new record, over USD 17 trillion according to certain estimates, equivalent to roughly 20% of world GDP. Indeed, some households, too, could borrow at negative rates. A growing number of investors are paying for the privilege of parting with their money. Even at the height of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-09, this would have been unthinkable. There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine,” Borio warned.

“Vaguely troubling,” this worst downturn in recorded history. Any “countries where there is still room for maneuver” best wise up. That ain’t us, so no need to worry about it. We owe it themselves.

About those “Capitalists”

22 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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banksters, communism, economics

A funny truth from 108 years ago.

_20190922_135923

Robert Minor, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 1911/See also: The Creature from Jekyll Island, Griffin.

More this coming week at TPC.

Very, Very Small Liquidity Crisis

20 Friday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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cash crunch, collapse, economics, Federal Reserve, NY Fed

What the hell is going on in NYC? Why aren’t the police down at 33 Liberty Street making arrests? Something is very wrong.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday it will inject billions into the US financial plumbing on a daily basis for the next three weeks in an effort to prevent a spike in short-term interest rates.

The Fed will offer up to $75 billion a day in repurchase agreements — exchanging secure assets for cash for very short periods — through October 10, it said in a statement.

In addition, it will offer three 14-day “repo” operations of at least $30 billion each.

And, this started on Monday (not starting today or next Monday) – 25 days of crisis cash? Plus another ten days of REPO BUCKS!!! (Like something out of the “education” lottery, no?) Run those numbers and this adds up to a $2.3 TRILLION DOLLAR* BAILOUT of the G-D banks! Out of thin air! I ain’t buying any of the excuses – bond-buying sprees, CDS collateralization, Antonio Brown getting cut, whatever. This is financial sorcery running amuck. The Goldman Sachs says we’re in for a rough October. No kidding, guys.

*$2.3 Tn, again just *POOF* created out of nothing, is almost enough to pay off all existing student loans and all credit card balances. Remember that, Ma and Pa Debtor, when the government runs up even more debt, on your backs, for another, larger future bailout, while telling you “we all have to do our parts” to help the “Too Big To Fails.” Remember and vote or something. Hold your breath.

Swapping Fake Money for Fake Money

18 Wednesday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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banksters, cash crisis, economics, Federal Reserve, sorcery

The NY Fed found a rabbit in its hat of tricks – more cash for the commercial banks.

The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve added billions more in liquidity to gummed-up intrabank lending markets Wednesday, following the first intervention in more than a decade only yesterday, as a worrying spike in overnight borrowing costs continues to perplex investors and complicate today’s Fed rate decision.

The New York Fed offered $75 billion in cash to broader markets, in exchange for eligible collateral such as U.S. Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities, in order to hold the Fed’s key rate inside its target range of between 2% and 2.25%. It accepted its full allotment, even as bids totaled $80 billion, lowing the range from 2.6% to 3% prior to the operation to 2.25% to 2.6% immediately afterwards.

The New York Fed was forced yesterday to inject $53.2 billion after overnight borrowing costs surged close to 10%, thanks in part to the hefty burden of primary dealers in the Fed system taking down nearly $45 billion each day in gross U.S. Treasury bond issuance, and reducing spare cash — known as excess reserves — at the same time. In fact, excess reserves have fallen by $171 billion so far this year, according to Fed data, and are down $1.4 trillion from 2014 levels.

All in exchange for Fed-enabled Treasurys. A very sickly little rabbit, probably rabid. Today and yesterday… Have you even heard of this cash crisis? Surely this is nothing that negative rates can’t cure!

Refinancing

11 Wednesday Sep 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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Tags

economics, finance, sorcery

Wouldn’t it be great if everyone could refinance their debts at negative rates? Like, maybe -100%. Or, is this just for the sorcerers themselves?

“The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term,” he said.

Who cares, right? We owe it to ourselves!

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Perrin Lovett

From Green Altar Books, an imprint of Shotwell Publishing

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