France, you had better hope and pray this math is correct.
The average sampled Macron victory margin is about -6%, which also translates into winning about 7% of the time! I also computed a poor-man’s estimate of the vote share, adjusting for our model misspecification (not summing to 100%). This results in a predicted Le Pen % of 53.7% for the best guess.
53% is razor-thin, but it’s the best chance you’ll have. Don’t wait another 5 years. Begin the reconquest now.