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PERRIN LOVETT

~ Deo Vindice

PERRIN LOVETT

Tag Archives: sorcery

Voodoo Economic News

17 Tuesday Dec 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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economy, Federal Reserve, sorcery, voodoo economics

Trade. Stock market. Interest rates. BAWK! The sorcerors wave their magic wands and all is well(?).

The trade deals, while not nearly as ambitious as Trump promised, have lessened one of the biggest drags on the U.S. economy: uncertainty. While some industries still face significant tariffs and final details remain in flux, business leaders say at least they know what the situation is likely to be in 2020, offering more clarity than they have had since Trump’s trade war commenced nearly two years ago.

“Tariffs will be much more stable for quite a while,” Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, told The Washington Post. “Some of the obstacles to growth, including the Fed and trade uncertainties, are being removed, and that will have a powerful positive impact on the economy.”

Hold up. Did Kudlow just say they’re removing the Fed???

The Math Gets Harder

13 Friday Dec 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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Federal Reserve, Repo Bucks!, sorcery

It’s so hard to keep up with QE Infinity at this point.

In other words, instead of QE4 the Fed will flood the repo market with a firehose of liquidity.

Here is how Curvature’s Skyrm summarized this:

One word: “Massive”. A few more words: The largest series of RP operations ever! The Fed announced it’s RP operations schedule for the next few weeks and it’s huge!

Here are my calculations:

There are two existing $25 billion term operations over the Turn already in the market totaling $50 billion

The Fed committed to at least a $150 billion overnight operation on year-end

A REG-start year-end operation on the day before year-end of $75 billion

Between now and year-end a total of 6 term RP operations totaling $225 billion

All total, I count the Fed committed to pump $500 billion in the Repo market over year-end. Naturally, the Turn (12/31-1/2) rallied a bit today. Trading from 4.25% yesterday to 3.80% today

A firehose is generally reserved for a fire. In other news, those main excuses for this, about taxes and treasury swaps, appear to be falling apart.

The Man Behind the (Market) Curtain

12 Thursday Dec 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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economics, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, sorcery

The Sorceror in Chief is propping up the markets. No, really.

Powell’s presentation marked a heel turn from earlier this year. Stocks tanked in July after Powell described the Fed’s first interest rate cut in a decade as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” because investors interpreted the remark as a signal the relief monetary policymakers were providing was only temporary. Now, however, “the cuts look much more permanent,” Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk wrote in a note. “The vote to hold rates unchanged was unanimous, the first time that all agreed on what the Fed should be doing since May 2019.”

And 13 of the 17 members of the Fed officials setting policy indicated they expect the borrowing rate to remain untouched next year, while four projected one hike. As recently as September, nine of the policymakers projected at least one rate hike next year.

Investors had largely priced in the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, but stocks rallied modestly on Powell’s post-meeting comments. Major indexes snapped a two-day losing streak, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.29 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average climbing 0.11% on the day.

“Markets liked Mr. Powell’s assertion that he would want to see a ‘significant’ and ‘persistent’ increase in inflation before he would want to raise rates, and he again drew attention to the undershoot to the target in recent years,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Sheperdson wrote in a note. “Mr. Powell’s view is not shared by all his colleagues, given that most of them expect rates to rise slightly over the next three years while core inflation is expected to be little changed. But markets put much more weight on the views of the Chair; that’s probably the right approach.”

Bubbe is as bubble does.

Sorcery “Goes Back Decades”

07 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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economics, Federal Reserve, fiat money, QE infinity!, sorcery

It is QE Infinity! The New York Fed’s funny money giveaway program was supposed to end on Monday. Instead, today the WSJ treats us to uncannily shoddy journalist revelations of a continuing nature.

The New York Fed added $115.14 billion to financial markets via temporary operations on Thursday.

The liquidity additions came in two parts. One was an overnight repurchase agreement with eligible banks totaling $80.14 billion, and the other was via a $35 billion 14-day repo. Eligible banks didn’t take all the liquidity offered by the Fed in the one-day operations, but in submitting $41.15 billion in Treasurys and mortgages for the latter operation, their interest in securing liquidity exceeded what the Fed was willing to provide on Thursday.

Fed repo interventions take in Treasury and mortgage securities from eligible banks in what is effectively a short-term loan of central-bank cash, collateralized by the bonds. The Fed’s injections are aimed at ensuring that the financial system has enough liquidity and that short-term borrowing rates remain well-behaved.

Recent Fed market interventions aren’t designed to serve as stimulus. While the sizes of recent operations are large, the practice of adding and subtracting liquidity from short-term markets to manage short-term interest rates goes back decades. The Fed is also buying Treasury bills to increase the size of its balance sheet and to add permanent liquidity to the financial system, and it hopes that effort will reduce the need for large temporary interventions.

Not a stimulus, just a behavior modification. Okaaaaay. Adding massive permanent liquidity (to a supposedly healthy system, well-behaved) in lieu of temporary interventions. Hmmmm.

Make of all that what you will. At this point, the dates, numbers, and words simply cannot be trusted. It was $165 Bn per day for 50 days. Now, is it $165 Bn for 53? Or, is it $115 Bn for 53? Or something else forever? Splitting the crazy differences … $140 Bn for 51.5 days = $7,210,000,000,000.00*. Or, they are now printing the fiat at the rate of 1 2019 GDP every five months. Or! 1 2019 SLFR BASE every three weeks. King Midas would be jealous.

*If it is 165/53, then we’re at $8.745 Trillion through today.

Soon…

The “Darker Aspects” of Financial Sorcery

04 Monday Nov 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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Tags

collapse, depression, economics, sorcery

As if there’s any other kind. A good look at them and at what’s coming: The End of Money.

Money vs Real Wealth

I happen to know a good deal about our current system of money; how it is created, how it functions, its benefits and its darker aspects. I find it critical to remember that it isn’t actually “real”. Rather, it is a concept. Specifically, it’s a social contract. An agreement. Albeit one enforced at the end of a gun – or, as seen here, an eviction sheriff enforcing the local tax codes:

So while money isn’t “real” in itself, we value it because it is a claim on real things.

Having a lot of it currently entitles you to a great deal of privileges and power, which are a direct outcome of the spending of that money.

Money can be converted into houses. And cars. And massages. Also groceries, electricity, cell phone services and prescription drugs. These and ten billion other things are what money allows you to buy — the things you actually need or want.

So money is the means, but it is not the real wealth. ‘Real wealth’ is the things that money enables you to acquire.

Read on. There’s a reason I frequently rant about this stuff. Look at those charts. Prepare.

Will Sorcery Affect the Food Supply?

01 Friday Nov 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Will Sorcery Affect the Food Supply?

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debt, economics, farmers, farms, food, sorcery

At a time when Americans are obviously eating more than ever, the farm industry requires massive subsidization.

The Agriculture Department projects that farm incomes will reach $88 billion in 2019 but nearly 40% of that — $33 billion — will come from trade aid, disaster assistance, the farm bill and insurance indemnities, according to a new report by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

Why it matters: Farmers — a critical constituency for President Trump in the 2020 presidential election — are feeling the squeeze from China’s retaliatory tariffs, extreme weather and record-high farm debt that’s driving farm bankruptcies.

By the numbers: In a 12-month period ending in September 2019, Chapter 12 farm or fishery bankruptcies totaled 580 filings, up 24% from a year earlier and the most since 2011, when 676 chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed.

Wisconsin experienced the highest Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings at 48 filings, followed by 37 filings in Georgia, Nebraska and Kansas.

Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia reported Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings on par with or above 10-year highs

One wonders if the banksters eat too. And this is all during the “boom” times.

“Like” and “Could Be”

29 Tuesday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in News and Notes

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Tags

debt, depression, economics, Federal Reserve, sorcery

Like, there could be a depression in this banana republic.

At this point, if the Federal Reserve stops juicing the economy, Pento argues, we could be looking at another depression.

“That’s why the Fed’s panicking,” he said. “If anybody still believes they’re omniscient or omnipotent or know their butt from their elbow, that’s over.”

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate this week by 25 basis points, the third such cut in three months. According to the minutes from the Sept. 17-18 meeting, “downside risks had become more pronounced since July,” yet “several participants” wanted the Fed to provide more clarity on when the response to those risks, including “trade uncertainty,” would end.

The fun side of sorcery – nearly unlimited free fiat for the banksters!

The dark side – 100% rates for the working poor!

And yet today, just a few years later, many of the same subprime lenders that specialized in the debt are promoting an almost equally onerous type of credit.

It’s called the online installment loan, a form of debt with much longer maturities but often the same sort of crippling, triple-digit interest rates. If the payday loan’s target audience is the nation’s poor, then the installment loan is geared to all those working-class Americans who have seen their wages stagnate and unpaid bills pile up in the years since the Great Recession.

The crisis is too big not to fail.

This is Becoming Tiresome

24 Thursday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns

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Tags

debt, economics, Federal Reserve, sorcery

Just the other evening, I was talking to MB about some TPC business. I relayed that I was tired of the daily dose of debt news from the WSJ – every day bringing another installment of the REPO BUCKS game as if it was something completely new. Then, today, the announcements changed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is boosting the amount of temporary liquidity it is willing to make available to financial markets starting this week, the bank said on Wednesday.

It said that as of Thursday, the minimum size of its overnight repurchase-agreement, or repo, operations will rise to $120 billion, from what had been at least $75 billion. Longer-term operations will rise from a minimum daily offering size of $35 billion and go up to $45 billion in interventions scheduled for Thursday and Oct. 29.

Do the math! Now, every single day, they can (and will) add $165 Billion in fake money for the banks. Why? Honestly, who cares? How long will this continue? Who cares? $165 Bn is the near-equivalent of the entire nominal GDP just 100 years ago. Every day.

Sorcery.

Likely to Get Much Worse…

23 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

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economics, economy, Federal Reserve, sorcery

The narcotic references speak for themselves.

“The repo market has been drugged into submission by the Fed,” said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research. “That’s fine for a while. But what I am getting concerned about is that they’re not figuring a way to get it off the drug and get it back to normal, and that will be a problem longer term for them.”

Investors have long complained about the Fed hand-holding the market, injecting trillions of dollars in liquidity and keeping interest rates artificially low during and after the financial crisis.

This is a different situation, though.

Rather than looking to goose the economy back to health, the Fed is now using its balance sheet to make sure banks have enough reserves and an adequate amount of capital is flowing through the system to keep things running efficiently. The effort also is aimed at keeping the Fed’s own overnight funds rate within the 25 basis point target range it employs.

It’s like an addict who has to keep getting the fix, not for a new high, but to keep from going into withdrawals. This is your economy. This is your economy on sorcery.

RPC explains that this is a global and system-wide issue.

Today central banks not only support bond prices by heavy purchases, they do the same thing in the equity market. The Bank of Japan, for example, owns 77.5% of Japan’s ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) market, having bought nearly 23 trillion yen of the ETF market since 2013. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/kuroda-defends-japan-central-banks-etf-buying-sees-no-near-term-exit-idUSKBN1O602Q

The Federal Reserve owns assets equal to 20% of US GDP. The European Central Bank owns assets equal to 40% of the euro-zone economy. The Bank of Japan’s asset hoard now exceeds the Japanese economy in size. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/bank-of-japan-s-hoard-of-assets-is-now-bigger-than-the-economy

With this background, we can now get on with the story.

For a decade we have had a stock market based on (1) the profits from lower labor costs by producing offshore the goods and services corporations sell to Americans, thereby destroying the American middle class and the tax base of cities and states, (2) the use of corporate profits for buying back the corporations’ stock, and by borrowing to buy back stock, thus decapitalizing the corporations in order to support stock prices, managerial bonuses and shareholder capital gains, and (3) Quantitative Easing (QE) which pumped trillions of dollars into US financial markets, thus pushing up the prices of financial assets. If the money the Federal Reserve created in order to support the solvency of the “banks too big to fail” had gone into the economy, hyperinflation in consumer prices would have been the result. Instead the money caused inflation in the prices of financial assets, and this is the explanation of why a small percentage of people—shareholders—have accumulated most of the gains in income and wealth.

The extraordinary increase in the inequality of incomes in the United States is the consequence of using economic policy to support the New York Banks, which has meant supporting the prices of the bad assets on their balance sheets.

In America today truth gets no respect from anyone whether right, left, liberal, conservative, Democrat, Republican. The idiot Hillary has alleged that the only sane Democrat—Tulsi Gabbard— is a Russian agent! It blows the mind. And the presstitutes treat the absurd allegation as if it is a fact.

Right on all counts. The sorcery has begotten inequality that begins to look like slavery. Most people seem okay, at present, with the situation. One wonders when and how that will change. Ask any addict – the crash always comes.

Enter the Sag: “This cycle is fading”

18 Friday Oct 2019

Posted by perrinlovett in Legal/Political Columns, News and Notes

≈ Comments Off on Enter the Sag: “This cycle is fading”

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debt, depression, economics, Federal Reserve, sorcery, the great sag

The sorcery has its limits. Ray Dalio says we’ve found them.

Hedge fund owner Ray Dalio said the global business cycle is in a “great sag” and the world’s economy holds at least two parallels to the 1930s.

Speaking a CNBC-moderated panel at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, Dalio said it was now too late for central banks to make much difference as economies enter a natural downturn.

“This cycle is fading, we are now in the world in what I would call a ‘great sag’,” said Dalio, adding that monetary policy, and especially interest rate reductions, were unlikely to offer much stimulus.

“Europe is at the limitation of that, Japan is (too) and the U.S. doesn’t have much to go on for that,” he told CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore.

Dalio said the world was also experiencing the biggest wealth gap since the 1930s and that was creating political stress.

He goes on to mention geopolitical war. One or more of those may strike a little closer to home than most would think possible. It’s not going to be pretty, but it is survivable. Now, what was the ancient punishment for sorcery? As the cycle fades, may the fires rise.

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Perrin Lovett

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