Sometimes it pays to heed the advice of an expert – a real one, not the faux “science” kind. Scott Ritter broke down why he thinks Gonzalo Lira is now a mole, plant, or informant working for the SBU.

There is only one logical explanation for this chain of events. Gonzalo Lira was arrested by the SBU for crimes he himself admits gets people arrested, tortured, and murdered. He is released five days later—unharmed—and immediately allowed to resume the exact same activity that led to arrest in the first place, only this time on a computer and email account controlled by the SBU.

This is a classic “catch and release” scenario, with Gonzalo Lira playing the role of “police confidential informant”—someone who provides information in exchange for lenient treatment. There literally is no other plausible explanation for what happened other than this.

Read the whole excellent thing. I still hope he’s wrong, but I have to admit he makes a fair case based on his advanced knowledge and personal experiences and observations. I had not thought through the metrics he used to reach his conclusion. Regardless of what you think or want to believe about Lira, pay close general attention to Ritter’s reasoning and the psy-op methodology he cites. Understanding how (real) disinformation works will go a long way towards spotting future operations, hoaxes, and dangers. And we’re going to keep seeing them.

Also, I’ve added his book to my list. His review of a previous air landing in Novosibirsk (Новосибирск) sold me.